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Nuance Communications (NUAN) Message Board

  • hageneriksson hageneriksson Nov 19, 2012 7:40 PM Flag

    conference call remarks

    analysts not too happy with reported numbers and outlook for next quarter - management admitted some push-outs and a generally weak operating environment.

    several questions around the low growth rate in healthcare and continuing weak enterprise numbers

    some questions on aggressive FY13 guidance - management admitted that guidance factors in acquisitions, new products and aggressive sales force expansion

    gross margins actually will be slightly LOWER in 2013 (as evidenced by the guidance which shows great revenue projections but only slightly higher eps than current estimates) because of aggressive investments into workforce, product development, advertising and sales organization

    Bottom line:

    Definitely not one of the conference calls investors love to listen to. Company has accumulated a sizeable debt load during its latest acquisition spree and with 2013 to be another "year of investment" I would expect free cash slow to be somewhat smaller than previously expected.

    Stock is looking quite cheap given that this is a software company but certainly there are some issues within the business which doesn't make the stock a screaming buy right now.

    After hours trading is already telling tomorrow's story: the stock needs some analyst support to get out of the red tomorrow but I don't think there will be much. I don't see any upgrades based on results and guidance but perhaps some reiterations mainly based on the fact that the stock is quite cheap.

    If there will be downgrades this one will go down double digits. Would look for some defenses later in the day then.

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    • stock has been trending lower most of the day and is now sitting at the $20 "psych" level which should hold for today. Would expect some further downside as investors exit the stock as there are no catalysts until the second half of 2013 at the earliest.

      Despite some largely positive analyst commentary the stock is down 7% so would expect some follow through selling this week.

 
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