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Nuance Communications, Inc. Message Board

  • horney_hairy_potter horney_hairy_potter Nov 20, 2012 8:05 PM Flag

    Current PE

    Someone check me on this:

    FY 12 - trailing PE:
    GAAP = .65/20.1 = 30.0 trailing PE
    NON-GAAP = 1.73/20.1 = 11.6 PE

    With growing organic and acquisition revenues and earnings (approximately 28% in FY '12), apart from the chart technicals (which Wall street controls), I don't see the gloom and doom.

    Any substantive feedback appreciated.

    Opal, I understand your position. I'm trying to focus here on the fundamentals and business side of Nuance - not it's trading patterns.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Horney hairy has it nailed, IMHO. 2 actions going on. 1. Traders who have 15mm or so to play with and an occasional big boy nuggie for effect. 2. Big boys have 95% watching the build to a 5 bn rev company at 25% per year. 2 1/2 years away at most. Mostly acts like a private company. IMHO 5 mm miss on 25% growth, now under 10 pe, that's why the 28-30 target by pros. Even the 5mm and a bit more was moved to next qtr. If anything Ricci wants to keep it low to peg his buy in prices.

    • By the way, Yahoo is now showing the trailing PE as around 30 -- using the GAAP earnings. Future PE is listed as 9 ..... which is what one would expect absent significant acquisitions (i.e. GAAP approximating non-GAAP) with the forecast 13% revenue growth and slightly shrinking margins (as indicated in the conference call).

    • I think Ricci needs to curtail the axquisitions in 2013 and focus on some needed organic growth. That will make believers out of the investors and more importantly, the analysts. IMO

      • 1 Reply to rep113sls
      • Possibly Rep -- but then Nuance has been built by acquisitions. I have been around since the $5 scan soft days. The earnings pattern that just took place has been with us on a regular basis. I feel it is a product of the method that Nuance has been built. In todays volatile market the blip is a little more pronounced. At what point the acquisition stops and organic growth starts will largely be determined by when he believes he has sufficient control of the market. I do not pretend to know when enough is enough but I am glad he did not stop when it was $8 a share.
        Best wishes to all.

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