Did RR actually admit in the CC that they were exploring a sale of the company either to private equity and/or Samsung? Have you noticed that at every CC, RR guides lower and then never meets those lower revisions only to lower again? I'm actually shocked this is holding up as well as it is.
He admitted squat on that conference call. He fielded layups from these analysts and he sputtered out gibberish as to what's going on. The bond redemption obviously placed a floor on this short term bottom. Only the heavy hitters owned these convertibles and they probably have a better idea than us as to why they were redeemed. RR's 30 million plus a year is really starting to aggravate me to the max.
Onyx, I think the reason the stock is holding up, as well as it is, can be traced back to a theory I first read on this board, floated by you...(and discussed further by Billy, Opal, etc)
maybe CI and RR are colluding to take nuan private at a pittance. Maybe that's why CI has remained so quiet on nuan. It would be a shame to see it happen, both for our long term investment and for the hypocrisy it would display in Icahn. However everything in the past few quarters seems to line up to support this theory. Kudos to you guys for recognizing it early.
The only other two directions i see this taking... a third party buyout (ie, samsung), or CI changing tact and playing hardball with RR. Only way to accomplish this would be to resign CI's board members and start a proxy battle. I'm only sure this would be successful if CI enlists support from independent activist camps (ie, Cooperman, Soros, etc etc) But CI is highly skilled at this game and, given RR's low popularity among investors, I think CI would be successful if he builds a coalition behind the scenes.
My point is... I think investors are hanging on because any of these endgames would likely outperform the market over the next year.
The one big risk is CI divesting at a loss and moving on. I see that as highly unlikely without putting up a fight first. Icahn against RR in a proxy battle is like Chuck Liddel fighting a 4th grader. I would really love to see the former.... ;)
That said, I'm feeling nearly as impatient as you guys! But in my experience, impatience at a time like this is a time to hold.
When you say a pittance I understand it to mean selling the company for less than what it is worth. However, wouldn't a sale still result in a stock spike? I can see a sales announcement bringing about a stock price in the $23 to $26 range. Which would work for me. Your thoughts?