I made some tactical short bets at the EOD today. Not Dang - am still long 50% Dang, along with several other Chinese stocks.
My short bets included SDS, SSO puts, TZA calls and some UCO and GLD. I am primarily concerned with the complacency in the markets. I'm not strictly speaking about the VIX, but rather the pending US budget/debt ceiling deadline.
In my opinion this is the single most crucial moment in U.S. history since the day after Pearl Harbor. I think all hell is about to break loose. Yet the bond market is slumbering, the global and US stock markets are rising, commodities are drifting...
Many of my colleagues are unconcerned. A few, like myself, are terrified. Fear is contagious and the closer we get to the August deadline I believe markets will begin to wobble and tremble.
In my view this budget deadlock is a no win situation. Whether you're for cutting SS or raising the taxes on the rich - so what? It won't make any difference. The deficit is so out of control that even massive cuts won't bring it back in balance. And then there's the debt...
The bond market says we raise the debt ceiling and kick the can down the road again. Do you think the world is going to let the U.S. rack up another trillion dollars in debt? It is my belief that if Congress wimps out of any meaningful action, the rest of world will take decisive action for us. What action? I am uncertain. Funny though the markets don't share my uncertainty...yet.
The debt ceiling was raised 7x's during the Bush Admin. I really wouldn't be so worried about it. What we all should be concerned with is Italy, they're to large to bail and would cause a snowball effect through Europe that would feel like an avalanche crashing down.
Yeah, Italy's another tumor. And I agree - its is a sinkhole that can't be filled if it collapses. Then again who has the money or the will to even try to help? I suspect Germany has just about had enough with bailouts.
There may be more fires soon that need to be put out as well. Who knows what country is next to send out an SOS. Too many more and the levee will break...
USA jobs are being outsourced for cheap labor in other countries. Guess what?! Those jobs you lost aren't coming back, unless americans accept to work for 10$ a day like indians or chinese.
How do you think corporations keep posting larger profits in these times of inflation and higher costs? Certainly not by hiring americans and giving them good salaries, benefits and retirement!
You guys are stuck in 9% or more unemployment until your country collapses. I remember 12 years ago in high school my teacher told us that the current ruling empire which is the USA will only last for another 20 years. So you have 8 left before another country takes over.
Proud canadian here!
You added absolutely nothing to the conversation... just some BS platitudes... nobody's bad mouthing the USA... just saying it like it is... if you're a republican, aren't you supporting the party of big business? then you are also supporting the outsourcing of jobs to China and India so corporate profits can soar... or are you anable to see anything beyond the FOX News talking points you parrot well... Polly want a cracker?
I am not a liberal and not a socialist... just a realist who is offering an observational perspective on the situation.
I am a big fan of capitalism... I just wish there was a way that it did not ultimately create such a large chasm between higher and lower classes.
The way I look at it, Capitalism is nothing but financially based Darwinism.
Agree Tsgfui,make me sick to know that so many don't care the direction of this country . In general all all are good posts. Lots of inteligent people here. Unfortunatelly the canadian is right too. THE REAL TRUTH IS THAT THE EXTRAORDINARY MESS WE ARE IN IS GOING TO DEVASTATE OUR LIFES . WE WILL NEVER BE THE SAME COUNTRY WE USE TO KNOW AND ENJOY .
Closed all positions from tactical bets today. The market may continue to roil and fall further, a lot further, but I made a small profit on the UCO, GLD and SDS positions and some very good money on the options so I sold. In my early trading days I always went for the home run only to find myself sitting in the bleachers with the lights out and broke...now I trade just hoping to make the rent.
Used some of the haul to buy into LDK today, along with some August (6 & 7) and Sept calls (7.5). Not recommended for anyone with motion sickness - LDK can give any rollercoaster a run for its money - and I'm not even remotely sure a bottom is in, but its oversold and at the bottom of a well established trading range. There are other positives I won't go into here, but if your looking for a cheap thrill, LDK may be for you.
Cheers all. Long Dang (bought more today).