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Luminex Corporation Message Board

  • sternmeyer3 sternmeyer3 Mar 13, 2008 8:59 PM Flag

    A Letter I Sent My Best Friend

    Easier than retyping:

    Sometimes one has to think ahead.IBD has us in correction.Every pundit talks about all the bad economic news.Bearish market sentiment is EXTREMELY high.This often occurs at market bottoms.If you read the newspaper(That's the "Conventional Wisdon")the world is ending.Maybe so shortterm.But the market is six months AHEAD of the economy.Although breaking IBD rules, Walter and I have been making money LONG now for 4 weeks.It has required some quick exits, but looking back, I'd have been better off just holding the entire 4 week period.We are playing the bearish sentiment(and other technical factors) as signs of a market turn. Tomorrow is Day 4 for IBD.So a follow thru day is needed to confirm a rally.Read the Big Picture-it almost sounds as if they are predicting it will happen.CPI gets released before open tomorrow.Like today's retail, the number will likely suck(I hope so).Hopefullly the market will open down and then the pros will do what they did today-buy the value.Since its Friday, if the market does another about face(or just goes up because the CPI surprises)we get a follow thru day.IMO.This could really be fueled because there are so many shorts and put owners(conventional wisdom) that they could easily panic, especially since it's Friday(They don't like holding a position they think is deteriorating through a weekend) I'm buying GGB (Brazilian real estatel),GFA(Brazilian steel) and DUG(betting the price of oil goes DOWN-that one will take some guts because oil may climb another 5-7 bucks before it CRASHES-up long term-but well overdue for a correction-Hell Boone Pickens shorted it at 95).Anyway, I know you think the market sucks and will go down, the economy sucks(it does here in USA for NOW), but you have to think outside Conventional wisdom or you're just a market bagholder.We'll see.You have me on record.Or it could just be a normal day and we get the follow thru next week.Or I'm wrong.Ask the guy at the Country Club what he thinks:):)

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    • "CPI gets released before open tomorrow.Like today's retail, the number will likely suck(I hope so).Hopefullly the market will open down and then the pros will do what they did today-buy the value.Since its Friday, if the market does another about face(or just goes up because the CPI surprises)we get a follow thru day.IMO."


      CHIT! We got the CPI surprise.Will have to pay more for the new stocks, but it prolly increases the chance(no guarantees) of a HUGE up day! Futures turned wildly UP.

    • Ceetainly some interesting thoughts there. The market is anything but predictable, but there are some definite trends that can be gleaned from watching and learning. Sure beats the hell out of that gold bug drivel.

 
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