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Alon USA Energy, Inc. Message Board

  • doogle60 doogle60 Aug 31, 2012 9:12 PM Flag

    Come on guys, relax....

    They will use the proceeds to pay down the debt...It is net net good! Relax....D

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    • bcmtmnewbold Sep 11, 2012 8:01 PM Flag

      Hi Doogle - I was in a rush to get out of the office late today but I believe Evan Calio from Morgan Stanley upgraded some of the refiners, including ALJ. I believe ALJ was upgraded from and underweight to an equal weight. It can't hurt. I don't have a link but I believe it will hit First Call tomorrow AM - it scrolled across Bloomberg today around 4:35 central time.

      • 2 Replies to bcmtmnewbold
      • Well, to be completely honest I don't place much weight on what Analysts say, what people at seeking alpha say, what people on CNBC say. I just go with what I know of the company, sector/industry, and what my instincts tell me. I have been at the market game for a long time and have been fortunate to gain a great amount of wealth. Needless to say its important to be humble at this, as I am the first to admit that I don't always get it right. ---I made a ton on WNR, did very well with TSO, VLO, DK, and HFC. Sold TSO too early but still can't complain!
        I see ALJ somewhere between 15-20 soon. I think that 17 is conservative and very realistic. This company has been on slow repair for a while now. Its been like watching paint dry. BUT finally its seems the management team has most of the cylinders running. This is not a day traders stock...Its a company and a story that takes patience. I have a lot of ALJ shares and am NOT pumping. I could care less if people short it. I am hanging on and won't sell one share until it gets in the high teens. And even then I won't unload a lot as I am patient as see 2013 as even better. So good that we got an upgrade- can't hurt....And of course read the negative article out this afternoon. ( Just as a side note I can't tell you how many times that particular publication has gotten this sector and stocks dead wrong. So I would not place too much in their negativity....JMHO D

      • They put a target of $17.

    • I was lucky, all out last week. I posted - It looked toppy. I was right, again.

      Next week price will drop as all IPO do, wait and see what is IPO price, Might drop back to 10.

    • The AH numbers were on 1kshares. The debt paydown and the increase in institutional ownership is a positive. This could be the most undervalued refiner based on the earnings coming in the second half of the year which I feel are going to be well over estimates as the refiners run full out on huge margins

    • bcmtmnewbold Aug 31, 2012 9:22 PM Flag

      Hi Doogle - I just glanced at the filing and it looks like they are "dropping down" Big Springs in an MLP format. It did not mention the other refineries in the filing. The debt pay-down is good - let's see how it plays out. I am hoping that it doesn't over-complicate things as refineries aren't usually considered good "drop-down" assets, versus a pipeline.

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