On average, I believe the average market valuation for most equities represents the average sentiment of the average investor/speculator. Future prices will continue to reflect this average. The problem with averages is that it doesn't necessarily represent anybody - "On average" a person would have one testicle and one ovary. When it comes to trading the market you can have half the people short and half the people long in a position and they both might lose money if the market doesn't move enough to compensate the brokers and market makers who will be taking a commission and setting the bid/ask spread. When you take a short term view of "trading" it is a casino and the houses edge will eat you up bit by bit. The money is made by companies that create value in their goods and services and reinvest that back into the business or pay it out to the owners. Trying to constantly jump in/out and second guess who will be on top is a losers game.