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HomeAway, Inc. (AWAY) Message Board

  • timbenton52 timbenton52 Dec 29, 2011 11:44 PM Flag

    Recent price action explained

    What happens to the stock price of a recent IPO (AWA) with a float of 9 million shares, when its IPO lock up expires, and 17.5 million shares are released for possible sale on the open market???

    Answer: the stock price rises on each and every day of the week FOLLOWING the expiration lock up. Makes sense right?

    Seriously, what is the point of doing any stock research? ...other than doing the exact OPPOSITE of whatever the hard work you did researching the stock tells you to do. That seems to work 100% of the time.

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    • You're late to the party. Why do you think the stock had dropped for the past 2 months? The answer is in anticipation of the unlock. Shorts are now covering.

      Plus as a previous post mentioned, sellers are probably waiting til after the new year so as to delay paying taxes.

      I am confident this junk will be junked - in due time. Hold your shorts/puts til after the REAL unlock in February.

      • 2 Replies to ajmanaseer
      • Hi -- I am late to the party too. That's not entirely accurate, I have not joined the party yet, and have just started looking into this.

        I'm hoping someone will explain why there are two unlocks with this? I gather than some number of shares were unlocked in December, and then some other number of shares will be unlocked in February. Was this planned in their prospectus all along, or did they manufacture some event or do something to extend lockup in order to try to engineer a soft landing (like Linked-In's secondary offering this past November).

        Thanks!

      • Thanks ajmanaseer. I agree with your analysis. I'm just annoyed that the price actually has been going UP with the large number of shares released. The short interest is not as large the number of lock up shares released so I thought that would work in my favor this week.

        Btw, I am from Glenview originally. I live in Chicago now. What is your email address? I'd like to IM you. I've got a number of other ideas and I'd be interested in bouncing them off of someone...or possibly starting a dedicated hedgefund. I'm at tomd0428@yahoo.com.

 
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