"It�s always difficult to crystal ball gaze into the future, but in today�s unstable environment it is even harder to try and look ahead. Having said that, I think 2003 will be very different from 2002 for Originators.
Early forecasts are for a 40% drop in total mortgage originations! That is quite sizeable and reason for concern. Add to that the huge influx of new originators over the past few years and you are going to see a much smaller pie with a lot more hands reaching into it.
In 2002, refinance business accounted for almost 70% of originations. Even if rates remained stable in 2003, refinances would �burn out� because there would be fewer borrowers who would have yet to take advantage of lower rates.
however, refinancing being strong and better economy in 2003 are inversly related.
as soon as the economy picks back up, long term rates will rise, leaving refis behind... when, who knows, but as soon as money shifts back into the stock market, it comes out of bonds driving up long term mortgage rates.
What did Barry Habib have to say in his 2003 outlook about applications for credit cards, auto loans, loans for new home or existing home purchases, applications for personal lines of credit, etc ... you know all those things TREE helps to facilitate?