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Biogen Idec Inc. Message Board

  • slick_shoes05 slick_shoes05 Aug 1, 2002 11:59 AM Flag

    I am looking at market during my lunch

    time at work. Get out longs. IDPH is a good company, but its stock is way expensive under the current market conditions. As I said before many times, there IS connection between Market and Economy. We will get double dip recession due to too much consumer and corporate debts.

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    • I am looking very hard at TMTA, and may well take another flier. But I like IBIS better.

    • One common mistake investors make is to compare the current low stock prices with the prices in the BUBBLE market. Do not look back, but look forward. In early 1990s, I was exited about PCs. But not any more. Remember that a similar thing happened in around 1920s: there were over 80 automakers at the time and their stock prices were insanely high. Now cars are a commodity and a similar thing will happen to INTC though INTC will survive. My suggestion to you: Sell SOME of your TECH and BIOTECH stocks to overweight in CASH.
      It will take more time for investors to adjust to the POSTBUBBLE REALITY. We will see.

    • Not true - a high end microprocessor sells for a little bit less than a refrigerator. INTC has at least 10-15 more years as a growth cyclical, in my opinion. So there will be opportunities to invest and to trade. I am also looking hard again at Applied Materials, which is already at a reasonable price, and may go a bit lower. Just about the entire semiconductor sector now is selling for less than was INTC alone two years ago. I think we have already taken out more than enough air from a sector that is in recession. But that doesn't mean it turns around tomorrow.

      Which is probably why I am overweighted biotechs.

    • I would buy INTC below $10, too. But I would sell it with profit later. IMHO, INTC is not a good investment. Through cost-cutting alone, INTC cannot excite its investors. Look at PC ever-falling prices. And there is demand saturation and there will be more microprocessor competition from Asia. PC is becoming sort of refrigerators. I am not excited about refrigerators or their stocks. But you deserve your opinion as much as I do mine. So, good luck to you.

    • VVUS looks interesting, but I am overweighted in biotechs already. I think you are underestimating INTC. They are about to upgrade to 300 mm production, which will lead to a big increase in their gross margins per unit of production - Moore's Law at work. If they actually hit 8 (I don't think so), I would sell my AMGN in a heartbeat to buy all the INTC I could afford. INTC is a great company in a sector whose demise has been greatly exaggerated. Were they overvalued at a $500B market cap. Sure? I used them as an object lesson for my class, relative to companies like GM and LMT two years ago. But at present valuation, I think they are a pretty good risk, if one is willing to look forward 2-3 years. Comparing them to GE in a valuation model is wholly a non-sequitir. GE would *kill* to get INTC's margins in their manufacturing business.

    • I do not know about the company at all. But I have no interest in penny stocks. They are cheap, but there are usually reasons.

      If you like to take risks for potential big reward, VVUS might be a good candidate. I bought it at $4 last year and sold it at $8 (at stop sell) this year. VVUS, which markets MUSE for men, is developing a FDS drug and their phase II data were good. But I like to remind you that there is significant risk for VVUS. So be careful.

    • I remember - cut my losses in the mid one's. Did OK on RNWK - doing OK on YHOO. There is a lot of unlocked franchise value there, but whose to say there might not be more.

      The market environment can turn on a dime. I would NEVER invest according to what I think the market environment is. Just my assessments of the likely future value of companies. INKT could still be a real company, but I doubt it. I can change my mind too.

    • Don't know about slicky but I never thought Inkt was a good investment. Infact I posted here in oposition to you and the hamster 1.5 or 2 years ago with regards to that...

    • So do you believe IDPH's earnings growth rate is going to slow down due to the approval of a competing treatment for NHL, or are you just expecting people to be unwilling to pay up for growth?

      PS - Ever think INKT was a good investment?

    • I am a serious guy and my ID was invented by my son.

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326.88+6.76(+2.11%)Sep 16 4:00 PMEDT

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