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Biogen Inc. Message Board

  • rolnelle rolnelle Sep 7, 2002 1:36 PM Flag

    Staying short

    I am remaining short in this stock due to its
    inability to break out and lack of solid fundementals. I will only cover if it runs above 45.

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    • No, never played the gentleman you mentioned. And, yes, the advent of top-notch computer programs has just about ruined correspondence chess. It is almost harder than work now. But, fortunately, just like in the stock market, computers still don't quite "get it." You can fairly easily look outside their event horizons still, so the premium is still on experience and understanding.

      Interesting week in the market next week. I am sure a lot of people will naturally be holding their collective breaths that nothing terrible happens on Sept. 11. Remember the July 5 relief rally? Wouldn't be surprised if we saw something like that if we could get through the first part of the week with no further attacks. A really sad commentary on the present world situation.

      There has been concern about IDPH moving up on a lack of volume. That is actually fairly characteristic of post-recession recovery rallies. The selling has abated, but the traders aren't convinced of the trend yet. By the time all the traders are convinced this is a great buy again, it will probably be asset allocation time.

    • Sorry, I misspelled one word.

      "You, idiot. You should ask your God, Dr. Corchess."
      should read
      "You, idiot. You should ask your doG, Dr. Corchess."

    • OK, I'll ask. What about the fundamentals is it that you don't like?

      The forward P/E?
      The growth rate?
      Sales forecasts for Rituxan and Zevalin?

      Which, if any, of these fundamentals do you expect to *improve* if the stock goes above 45?

      • 3 Replies to corrchess_IM
      • Let me answer you by asking this for "rolnelle."
        Schwab rates IDPH as "F." They have no banking relationship to IDPH and so they should be more reliable than the analysts who cover IDPH or you, who is almost religious about this risky stock.

        I do not like IDPH's high PEG. I do not like IDPH's pipeline. No drug in phase III. Only three in very early phase II. That is all. Zevalin is a minor drug compared to Rituxan. So IDPH has one major drug in market. As I said before, a drug cycle is about 10 years. Soon Rituxan sale will reach a top and begin to decline for the 2nd half of the 10 year drug cycle.
        Basically, it is too expensive considering all the risks of this stock.

        AMGN is a much better stock to own in BIOTECH sector, but IDPH is a very good stock to play with, I mean to trade to make quick money. Too much risk with IDPH stock now. Not for me.

        By the way, I notice that you are slowly losing credibility here.

      • Shut up, please!

264.85+1.19(+0.45%)May 23 4:00 PMEDT