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Biogen Idec Inc. Message Board

  • nygirl511 nygirl511 Dec 6, 2002 7:53 PM Flag

    IDPH is not out of the Woods

    Idph needed to fill the gap and at least close in the vacinity to show a break in the down trend. The RSI (relative strenght) is down and there is a big interest in traders buying Dec puts.
    This stock needs to test 30 and/or break through to finally shake out the sellers and bring the P/E to a better level.
    I am not impressed with this stock at all.
    I like MLNM, PDLI and XOMA much better.

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    • I hear you. Gotta be diversified. Thanks for sharing. DM

    • If you are interested historically, look at messages 4192 and 8683 on this board - this year's list will be different, and this year's return won't be as good as last unless there is an unbelievable rally between now and end of year. But next year is another year.

      At present, top holdings include: IBIS, IDPH, TMA, IMMU, CLWY, DNA, CBRL, AMGN, BGEN, and GE. But it wouldn't surprise me if that list changes before 12/31. As always, caveat emptor, and the only way I can justify having 5 biotechs on this list is that I have retirement accounts that include several diversified mutual funds. Many of these companies are probably only suitable for investors with high tolerances for risk and pain.

    • What are your top 10... just curious.

    • No individual stock positions in big pharma (not counting AMGN). Reasons very simple - one product doesn't leverage earnings nearly as much as for biotechs. Plus, big pharma is fairly popular with several mutual funds I own.

      Altogether, I own something like 50 individuals stocks. I need to own fewer, not more.

    • Oh, privately I might think that too. But I am prepared to wait longer than end of next year.

    • I think mid 50 in 3 years is too conservative. I would expect mid 50 by the end of next year given current growth and pe...

    • Noise does not bother me. The bashers who claim I've said I got a PhD studying noise are exactly correct. I did.

      That taught me well in theory not to try to trade it, but not as well as the market taught me in practice. There is no percentage trying to trade noise. So I extend my horizons and look for moves outside of noise patterns. Probability and outcome.

    • For me, there are only a couple other companies that I know more about than IDPH. So why buy something I don't know instead of something I know that looks reasonably priced relative to its peer group, and still has a wealth of opportunities that I believe fully counterbalance the risk.

      But I own a lot of stocks other than IDPH; others I have bought or added to recently are ISIS, MLNM, GT, MARSA, HYSQ, IBIS, F, and TFS. Ones I have pruned recently are CREE, IMCL, YHOO (too soon, probably), and ELN (too late). Will be right on some and wrong on others. Guaranteed.

      My target for IDPH is mid 50's in 3-5 years, based on increasing Rituxan sales, ramp continuing in Zevalin, and a positive surprise from the pipeline and/or an in-licensing opportunity. We'll see if that is correct. I have no target for the next 3-5 weeks, because anything can happen over a short period of time.

    • Dew,

      I didn't say bearish case wasn't easy to make. I said I didn't buy it.

      All of the things you've said and more I factored into decisions to cut my holdings in IDPH by 2/3 in 2000 at higher levels. At these levels, I am rebuilding my position slowly. It's about comparing valuation to potential risks and rewards.

      Numerically, I actually own more shares of IMMU than IDPH, but not more $ value. IMMU is reporting a humanized version of an anti-CD20 mAB at ASH, but that is years away from approval, if ever. For now, IDPH is it. But not necessarily for ever.

      I've been saying that for the last 11 years. I remain an investor - one day at a time.

    • thank you for your fair and intelligent response...I just feel with the array of stocks to chose from, why chase Idph?
      It has too much "noise".....
      good luck to all.....

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