It is lining up on its bottom for earnings to disappoint and the bottom could fall out. Some calls to hedge should be used, just in case the stock says something new and great and the stock takes off.
The 1st thing is the reversal before earnings. if it does that we can get bullish on any gap up. If the reversal does not come as it hasn't yet than any gap up under 36 is bearish. I would need a gap up and a close above 36 to get really bullish on this stock.
A lot of this is Merrill and a few other firms talking down Rituxan growth. Well, can you blame them? You've got a bunch of trial lawyers running around looking for analysts who put out buys on high PE, high growth stocks 2-3 years ago.
Difference is - IDPH has consistently put up the numbers. But tell that to your firm's risk manager. It will take the Street more than one quarter of good numbers to start building those expectations back into the pricing.
Or else a shift in sentiment. And that can always come at any time. This is the bipolar Mr. Market of Graham and Dodd fame.
sorry, nope, wrong biowatch, I recommend corrchess' posts as soon as I read them-- he's probably the only intelligible one left on this board who's worth reading anymore, yourself included. I imagine other sane members on this board do the same.
Only one guy figured out it is a good straddle from my prior merssage. It is going to move, my bet is down but I am not too proud to buy some out of the money calls just in case. If its going to go up, I will need a strong move and if it cracks lower it will break support and will fall fast and hard.
And exactly what guidance do you expect them to give that is worse than present expectation?
There is a difference between being objective and being dense in one's expectation. DNA already gave positive guidance on Rituxan growth, and IDPH won't give quantitative guidance on Zevalin because the treatment is too new. But sales estimates are now down about a factor of 4-5 from previous, unrealistically rosy, expectation. So the path of least resistance in guidance now appears to be up to me.
And that is independent of what the market is doing at any particular minute or day.