Biogen's actions of pushing for combo therapy, pulling Tysabri from the market in 2005, not telling Elan about PML until the last minute, not backing Elan during Black Monday, fighting for blackbox/second line treatment, extending the FDA decision for 3 months because of a probably "calculated" last minute change to cause more delay (after all they are experts on the approval process and if they really wanted this, they would be working faster), making statements that they won't be ready to market until end of June/early July, making statements that they have fairly limited capacity to produce Tysabri right now ALL seem to indicate that Biogen has done the calculations (with more variables than all of us can imagine) that Tysabri sales ultimately in some form initially hurt Avonex sales more than a 50% share of Tysabri would benefit Biogen.
Look like we have a BIG WINNER here . Do your DD and see for urself
SGXP break out is imminent
Yes..SGXP with only have 14.2 million shares outstanding has just team up with Novartis (NVS ) in a deal that Novartis can pay SGXP more than 515 million dollars under the deal.
That represent a pay of more than 36$ a share for SGXP for this deal and SGXP is only trade at 9.40$ now..
SGX Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NasdaqNM:SGXP - News) late on Monday said Swiss drugmaker Novartis AG (NOVN.VX) had licensed its experimental drugs to treat leukemia and could eventually pay it more than $515 million under the deal.
Read this link
Jump in now..SGXP will gradually climb over 30$ easily
Disclosure: longer ELN, long BIIB, just back from vacation. I see idiots are really out in force now. Your speculations appear a mix of facts and paranoia yeilding speculation some might consider extra-real.
Missed the unfortunate delay, and about that, two things can be said. First, it would appear to almost incomprehensible that the FDA would not know what it needs in for risk assessment/monitoring at this point in time. There were two prongs to this coming back to market. First, the safety study, completed long ago, and more science/data compilation than art. Second, what type of education/monitoring would be expected was always in question, from late last spring on.
Now, BIIB revised it plan just before the AC. Why the first was insufficient is troublesome, but a much more logical conclusion is that it is the FDA that is stalling. Why:
1. It is damn clear approval is going to happen;
2. It also was pretty clear at the end of the year (from BIIB and ELN) that this risk management plan was a key and not fully resolved at that time.
3. And, even before the AC but especially there, we and the FDA find that patients are waiting in line for Tysabri to return, en masse.
4. Therefore, IMO, the FDA intents on insuring that the risk of Tysabri is over-sold not undersold. As they said -- they want to be sure that all patients understand that they can get the fatal PML! It is FDA CYA.
5. There is not "perfect" risk/monitoring strategy. Anyone who did not understand this by mid-summer was clueless. Apparently the FDA remained so, yet wants to take more time to insure it is "perfect." In defense of the FDA, this venture is completely new to them, and institutional overthink and consternation can overcome the obvious in such situations.
Finally, Elanforever, I see you think BIIB will make less if Ty comes back to market. If you lay out market assumptions (segments and shares), including Avonex coming off patent protection (EU), you will see this conclusion makes less sense than your alleged BIIB conspiracy.
There is one scenario that provides BIIB with more revenue. If Tysabri was prescribed only to failures, BIIB would still be one of only 4 products prescribed as first line. They would then retain their share of that market. With Tysabri as second line, they would pick up all or almost all those available patients. Tysabri is then 100% add-on. That is what they were banking on IMO. With Tysabri as first line, new patients are harder to come by for Avonex.
All Elan lovers that believe Biogen treated Elan unfairly should look to Elan management. If they were stupid enough to get outfoxed, it is only business, not personal. In business, as well as life, there are winners(BIIB) and losers (ELN).
You should always try to avoid responding with a post dumber than the one you are addressing.
BIIB has not been impressive on this from the onset, IMO. ELN, with Kelly Martin and Lars, would have performed much better -- because they are smart and they know that it is the FDA that give the nod. So, at every corner they would have approached the FDA with "tell us what you need." And, they appear to know how to read faces and institutions, something Mullen appears not to know how to do.
If there is provable substance to any of the speculation that BIIB was gaming to its advantage, ELN would wait till after approval and drop a civil bomb. If they do so, you'll find out how smart they are. That said, if they thought gaming was going on, they have had and would have taken opportunity to address this through ELN ownership rights already. The contract gives BIIB the lead on the M.S. application, just the lead.