Although I love Tysabri and feel that it has a great future, Avonex is on the verge of being eaten up by Tysabri and potential oral drugs. I think that the MM data needs to come out to evaluate if there is more growth is BIIB. I wouldn't expect any excessive premiums based on the fact that future growth for BIIB is essentially entirely dependent on Tysabri. I don't think JNJ is interested, but has offered to back Elan with the dollars they need in the event BIIB is taken out. Nothing more than protection for Elan. Although the MS space is important there are far more dollars up for grabs in the ALZ space.
BIIB may list a good pipeline but they fail to execute on that pipeline. If you have followed along for years you would see that there is very little progression of projects once they leave the early research level into pre clinical development and beyond. I know these things take years but BIIB can't follow through. The company is failing in this respect.
Something or many things must be to blame. Either
1--they don't have the necessary number of people to make it happen
2--they advance worthless programs to make the VP's look good
In the Pipeline for BIIB is also the safeest oral in MS. Unfortunately it will be in the market third after two unsafe orals.
There is a cardiology drug that is getting great results in Phase 3 trials right now. It removes the excess Potassium from the heart after surgery but keeps the necessary sodium within the body. Will be a first and best in class. Look for this in 2 to 3 years.
Anyone who doesn't understand the pipeline of BIIB shouldn't ask the question of why BIIB and then put it down in the line. Just shows how uninformed so many investors in the market are.
That's why the price of the stock doesn't reflect true value. So many people don't understand what they are investing in. How can you not like a company that gives double digit revenue growth year after year?
The double digit growth you are talking about could soon come crashing down with the introduction of oral MS drugs and Avonex going generic. Oral drugs pose the greatest threat along with Tysabri eating up Avonex revenue. Things are not quite as sunny as you are painting. Bottom line is that Avonex is their cash cow and it may get hit substantially in the next 12-18 months.
Although Biogen may have a safer MS pill, efficacy is starting to rule for patients as all MS meds do not cure their disease. People will be willing to take a level of risk for an improvement in quality of life.
Avonex pricing may also take a hit as with increased competition from Copaxane and the new Oral drugs may require price reductions to maintain marketshare. So not only with they face declining scripts, but to remain competitive they may have to reduce the revenue from the remaining scripts.
Although I do appreciate the update on the other items, BIIB is not the slam dunk you are trying to portray and this is why the market has priced BIIB where they are.
So I guess you fall into that category of uniformed investors you are talking about