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Biogen Inc. Message Board

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  • mishamagosh mishamagosh Jun 17, 2010 7:13 PM Flag

    Big things are starting

    this "uptrend" is just a snap back from the low dive we were just on. BIIB is gonna continue to bounce around below 60 unless there is a really big announcement. Sure you can make a few bucks but Its gonna take a sale of BIIB company as a whole or in parts to move this thing.

    I would welcome some big news to give this stock a serious kick up. Sell or buy. I gotta think something is happening.

    I agree with the other post that this message board has become pathetic. No one knows anything and those who do know something don't post much anymore. I think most people at the company are kept in the dark about whats really going on.

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    • I don't think the intent of a message board was ever to give you insider info. It's a place where folks (hopefully intelligent) can share their thoughts and opinions. Now regarding BIIB, left to the pipeline, in two years definitely will explode.

      For the short term, a lot of the nervousness is caused by having no CEO at the helm. Look at Apple for an example. Great Company, however, when people thought Steve Jobs was dying and he took a long medical leave, Apple stock crashed to below $80. When Jobs came back and was healthy again Apple stock reached $300 in one year! Hopefully the investors will like the next BIIB CEO. If he's really good, the stock may start trending up. Also, at this price, everyone knows BIIB is a bargain, so if negotiations start around a potential sale of the company again, the price should just rally very quickly. Other positives in the near future are the approval of BIIB's Fampridine (licensed from Acorda) in Europe, and any announcement regarding an assay for JC Virus for Tysabri patients. These two should give the stock quite a boost in the relatively near future.

      Excluding the risk of PML, Tysabri remains by far the safest and most effective MS treatment out there. If the assay is finalized, 60% of the MS patients will show negative to JC virus and there should be no reason why they would settle with anything less than Tysabri, I wouldn't. That alone should put Tysabri at a 5 to 6 Billion dollars per year in the next couple of years (i.e. 60% of a $10 billion market). Why else would J&J have their teeth sunk in Elan?

      It seems that investors don't care about the near future anymore, they want everything NOW! So be it. Those who sell in the 40s will buy back in the 80s, just the way it usually works.

      My two cents...

      • 1 Reply to simplecommoncents
      • Thank you for the thoughtful two cents. That was exactly the kinds of posts we are missing.

        I agree there is a whole lot of nervousness around the lack of a CEO not to mention so many key positions are on hold until the CEO is filled. Currently there is no head of R&D or of the PreClincial development Group and now the COO is also leaving in Dec. BIIB has no Steve Jobs unless Jim Vincent or BIll Ratsteeder is willing to give this company another chance but I would not hold my breath.

        Another key factor is of course Carl. He has increased his power on the board so its reasonable to assume that his desire to break up the company and sell it in pieces is getting more consideration. The end of the "stand still" agreement with ELN is upon us which opens the doors to many possible moves.

        I agree JNJ involvment with ELN shows that there is confidence in Tysabri as there should be. If you understand the biology behind Tysabri you know that there are other indications where Tyasbri would be useful. Wendells rants on this message board does have sound scientific basis. I would make sense that JNJ is taking a close look at BIIB.

        While the short term hope for the BIIB pipeline is good still pipelines are a gamble. If you really pay attention to the BIIB pipeline you will notice many things disappear or fail to progress. When this happens before they go to clinic it seems to be unnoticed. Two years is a long time to wait for good news. Had Mullen been able to get Facet that would have helped. Too bad there was so much bad blood between Mullen and Faheem. Abbotts purchase price showed that BIIB was being cheap which got them nothing.

        I think the big question is whether BIIB sticks with the Oncolgy division or if it is partnered out with an eventual sale. Agreement with DNA (Roche) on Rituxan ownership will make that messy but not impossible. Everything in business is negotiatable. What happens to the Immunology division is another question.

        While a message board might not give you insider information it was far more interesting when more people "in the know" were on the board. Its clear from the lack of detail in the posts most folks don't know squat about what is really going on. I know most companies threaten employees who post on message boards with termination. There are many people who are married to /partnered to or are associated with people who have things to share.

        Enough for now--lets keep the intelligent discussions rolling.

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