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Biogen Idec Inc. Message Board

  • ck4dui ck4dui Mar 28, 2013 10:45 AM Flag

    176 YESTERDAY....190 TODAY..WE ALREADY KNEW THAT THE DRUG WAS GOING TO GET APPROVAL

    Now we have rollout costs and will this be the new ms drug or not...?

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    • I don't get it either. It is not like this is some big surprise. BIIB stock up $12 adds $5 billion to its market cap. $5 BILLION. And it is not like there wasn't already alot of stock price increase put into BIIB for the BG-12 approval already. And BG-12 is not the first oral MS drug in the marketplace. Additionally BIIB will be marketing BG-12 as a first line treatment, which puts it right up against its own CRAB injection-based MS treatment Avonex. I think that Avonex sales are going to start to decline, which will partially offset the positive impact of BG-12 (this is an assumption on my part and I really can't quantify the impact, if any). Avonex sales are already starting to slow down and this is by far BIIB's largest product. And there will be other oral MS drugs coming to market from competitors.. Looks to me like BIIB is a huge sell here. The earnings multiple is among the tops of drug companies at well north of 30 times. I saw that one analyst said that BG-12 will do $1 billion in revenues in a couple of years. That is a nice number, but I think that there is already easily $30 of stock price in BIIB for BG-12. That equals over $12 billion in value to a drug that is only starting to be introduced into the market.

 
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