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Biogen Inc. Message Board

  • Will_Baley Will_Baley Aug 10, 1999 2:34 PM Flag

    euphoria at idec

    visited the campus last week--spring in steps,
    smiles on faces, calculators in hand, new cars in lot,
    real estate agents on phone, vacation planning, new
    threads, high fives all around. and that was before it
    went up another 10% this week! those people work hard
    and really deserve this success, glad they're
    enjoying it, wish I worked there too. Construction of new
    building still in the site-scraping and hole digging
    stage, looks to be a big one, really nice location on
    science park road.

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    • I certainly agree with your assessment of the
      present market environment and the absolutely wonderful
      future prospects for this company. But, if sentiment
      changes in the overall market, and the aggressive growth
      and momentum players move on from IDPH to the next
      great thing, my point is that support from traditional
      growth and value investors is now a long way down. If
      sentiment stays positive, things are cool, especially given
      the recent rotation of institutional money into the
      pharmaceutical group. But I have a long memory of many companies
      with equally good prospects that dropped much more
      than 30% in an overall market correction. Buyers of
      IDPH at these levels MUST be prepared to average down
      if such a correction occurs. If they are not
      prepared to do this, then they should buy something else,
      and wait. As for the size of the trade being
      proportional to the intelligence of the investor, that is
      largely a myth. The big guys get hung out to dry on
      occasion just like the rest of us.

    • Point well taken!

      I lightened my load 25% today but, I will hang in there with the rest waiting for that earnings growth you mentioned.

      See you next summer...

    • I agree on the points you make in principle, if
      not details. A correction of 10-30% is perfectly
      normal following a runup such as we've seen in IDPH and
      others, and this one could fall to about 90 bucks and
      still have had a wonderful advance. That would make a
      buying opportunity for someone new to the stock. Or it
      could trade sideways for a while, or it could continue
      up. You never know.
      Look at today's action: For
      each seller, there was a buyer. *YOU* and I didn't buy
      today because we're already fully invested or even
      overweighted in IDEC, having been long IDPH for years. Our
      basis is much lower and we've been selling into this
      strength because we were ahead of the curve and want to
      rebalance our portfolios, buying stocks that are just
      starting large (we hope!) advances. Insiders and employees
      are probably selling some shares to take profits on
      options (they keep earning more) and diversify their
      holdings (not to mention pay their new car loan and
      mortgage bills, good for them! ;-). Others (especially
      institutions) are just starting to build positions, bought
      recently, and have higher target prices.
      Takes both
      buyers and sellers to make a market, and the market is
      very efficient at measuring value. This stock is
      currently WORTH 138 a share. The long term trend is
      definitely up. Day to day it could move either direction; I
      just hope IDPH *investors* remember that when the
      traders have moved their attention elsewhere and we give
      back a few percent. I guarantee 138 pre-split will
      look absurdly cheap 5 years from now. Tomorrow, next
      week, or next month is anybody's guess.
      However, I
      really don't think anyone who bought yesterday or today
      expects a quick decline in the value of their shares.
      Otherwise they'd have waited for the drop. And I figure
      anyone buying a 10K or 50K block of a $130 stock knows
      what the hell they're doing, and there's still lots of
      upside potential in this company. Therefore I hold and
      buy on dips, like last week's 117.
      My advice
      remains the same: average into or out of a stock, no
      reason to buy or sell your whole postion at once (Dean).
      You'll never catch the exact tops and bottoms, but at
      least you'll be in the game, instead of on the
      sidelines, and your risk will be spread out to an acceptable
      degree. And remember the three most important things in
      stock selection: Earnings growth, earnings growth, and
      earnings growth. Good luck and good investing.

      thanks for the ILXO and LKST info, Steely. When they
      have earnings growth, I'll be a buyer. For now, watch
      list only.

    • Howdy_YALL_Money_Hugs Howdy_YALL_Money_Hugs Aug 24, 1999 12:54 PM Flag

      Go IDPH

    • I've been long this stock at one level or another
      since Jan. 1992, and I am torn between being absolutely
      ecstatic about the recent runup, and being absolutely
      convinced that there are entirely too many people who now
      own this (and other recent high flying) stocks that
      have not correctly factored in the level of risk that
      has built up in this market. I don't plan to sell any
      more of my IDPH any time soon, but I would not be
      surprised to see a 40-50% correction this fall, due to
      nothing other than a change of sentiment in the market.
      As for the company, long term it just looks more and
      more terrific, but if I wasn't pyramiding up in the
      70's I sure as heck would not do it now. We are
      getting years worth of movement in a few weeks in many
      stocks in this market, which is fun while it lasts - and
      I hope IDPH goes a whole bunch higher before the
      momentum jockeys cash out, which they will inevitably do.

    • Oh, don't you worry about me my friend...Since I
      got out of IDPH (which still pains me), I've been up
      about 20% in a stock called Genelabs (which, BTW, I did
      successfully time selling and buying back after making a 66%
      return earlier on it)...

      I hope you do well with
      your ILXO and LKST...I visited their chat boards and
      see you all over them pumping up the rallying cry for

      Good luck to you, and thanks for your

      -The Dream

    • ILXO is up 9.7% since I gave it to you last Wednesday!

      Stop whimpering about IDPH and look into ILXO or LKST before it's too late.

      This has been your second notice...

    • of LKST today? Talk about acting (quickly) on a

      Don't you understand the benefits of
      doing your own due diligence :-) ???

      Anyway -
      hang in there - there's more where that came from...

    • Now's the perfect time for you to consider ILXO
      and/or LKST.

      One or both of them are poised to
      take off here shortly. Once the marketing partner is
      announced for CAMPATH there will be a short interlude until
      late October for the completion of the BLA

      Then it's December and the ASH conference, followed by
      updated reports on other uses for the drug and the FDA
      approval in the March - April timeframe.

      I don't
      know how long you held IDPH to make that 174% gain but
      you should see anywhere from a 33-50% profit in these
      two in as little as 6-9 months. Be willing to hold
      for two years or more and a 174% gain will seem like
      chump change...

    • I remember you talking me out of trying to play
      the range game at 60, and boy, am I thankful for

      However, I can't imagine taking the chance on losing my
      profits on this one...And, I can't imagine there being at
      least one round of profit taking after the stock has
      moved so hugely over the past few months...I do hope
      that I get the chance to come back in at a lower
      level...If I do, I'll be back on the rallying ship
      supporting this Company 100%...If I don't get the
      opportunity (deep sigh), I will wait for some type of news to
      get me back in...I know I will lose out on some good
      points leading up to the news, but, like I

      Perhaps you right in that I should have held onto some of
      my shares, but the profit was just to ripe for the

      Good luck and good trading...

      -The Dream

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