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Biogen Inc. Message Board

  • tradepuppy tradepuppy Aug 25, 1999 9:53 AM Flag

    IDPH liked by Merrill

    IDPH liked by Merrill Lynch among other biotechs.
    Upgrades from near buy to accumulate and retain long term
    buy rating. Merrill Lynch positive in rerating of
    biotechs. Stocks mentioned were MEDI, AMGN, BGEN, IDPH,

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    • Thanks so much for your informing me that drugs
      and diseases are effecting human beings and their
      families. After spending over 50,000 hours caring for
      patients night and day (the doctorbyday is a kind of
      misnomer) it never occured to me that the people I was
      treating were anything more than a means of increasing my
      net worth through pharmaceutical company profits. The
      struggle my wife and I have had fighting Non-Hodgkins
      Lymphoma for the past 14 years has also left me equally
      clueless about how NHL could effect a family.

      attempt to mask promoting your short position in IDEC by
      trying to show you have some compassion for those with
      illness was truely pathetic, insulting to myself
      personally and professionally, and an insult to the
      intelligence of the readers of your post. I encourage others
      to not even dignify your future posts with reading
      them, be assured I won't waste my time.

    • with the others who've responded to your question
      about diversification, that no matter how good any
      single investment appears, it's safer to not have too
      much of your net worth tied up in it. Most people
      prefer not to have all their eggs in one basket, to use
      an expression no one's ever heard

      That's probably what the financial planner you spoke to
      had in mind when he suggested you buy mutual funds.
      Turns out you did very well holding IDPH instead, but
      if shares were now $5 or $10 instead of $130
      something, you would have wished you had listened to him (or
      her;-) and bought mutual funds that went up, say, 15%
      per year. Point is, the future is uncertain, and
      diversification spreads the risk. Unfortunately, it also dilutes
      the impact of your big winners. In retrospect, you
      did the right thing.

      It's difficult to give
      any specific advice without knowing more about your
      overall financial situation, short and long term goals,
      general tolerance for risk, interest in keeping
      accounting and tax records associated with an actively
      managed portfolio, or sentimentality about holding stock
      in your former employer (or even the total number of
      shares, cost basis, or anything else!)

      The easiest
      thing to do would be to just hold on to the shares and
      diversify by buying different individual stocks or mutual
      funds with your new investment money. You could sell a
      few IDPH shares periodically to increase your
      diversification rate as new investment ideas come along or if
      your financial needs change. Some people set specific
      price targets and sell a percentage of their holdings
      when the stock price rises to the target.

      don't sound like you intend to sell all your IDPH, and
      that's good, because it's likely that what you move the
      money into won't perform as well as IDEC stock will if
      the company's fortunes continue to go as well as they
      have been going and appear to still be going. But, and
      here's the important part, if IDEC runs into trouble,
      you won't be hurt as much if you're diversified as
      you would be if it's your only investment.

      you don't mind the fluctuations and don't have any
      better investment ideas, you're probably better off
      staying with IDPH.

    • There *was* some interesting speculation going on
      back then, wasn't there? Reminds me of those lists of
      similarities you see between Lincoln and Kennedy... Here's
      another one: Partner Schering in now in common. I still
      see potential synergies.

      Anyway, best of luck
      with ILXO and LKST. Still got my eye on them, but
      right now I'm throwing most of my new $ at networking,
      storage, and telecomm stocks.

    • looking back over some old posts and see that an era of wondering and speculative
      thinking (concerning IDPH and ILXO) has now officially come to an end...



      Good wishes for everyone on the IDEC train! (Or should I say, "locomotive"???)

    • I understand how a technician could be concerned
      about IDPH's present chart, and the market itself, for
      that matter. The recent lack of volume on up moves has
      me only about 75-80% in stocks at present, which is
      my lowest level since Dec. 1990. But about 10% of
      that 75-80% is IDPH, which I plan to hang onto for as
      long as the fundamentals keep looking as good as they
      do now. I will let the traders provide the liquidity
      we long-term longs will need on that day in the (I
      hope very distant) future when we need to cash in.

    • from a technical standpoint-is ayone concerned
      about serious looking crossover-I know all you loyal
      IDPH longs are not too concerned-but i am--but then
      again im not that loyal-only had position for a couple
      of months--

    • D.B.D.
      I am sorry I was wrong, 600M in Rituxan
      earnings to IDEC equals 250K patients.

      When I was
      young they called it old math. For IDEC to earn 600M:

      600M /0.3(IDEC receives 30% of Rituxan sales)= 2.0B in
      total sales. $2.0B/$8000( Cost of treatment)=250K
      patients per year.

      Colter expects this market to be
      worth 400M in 3-5 years. (Press release 06/30/99). That
      equals 120M in earnings to IDEC or $2.60

      With all 56,800 new nHL patients receiving treatment
      with Rituxan equals $136.3M in earnings to IDEC,
      subtract your your 170M. That equals a 33.7M

      Statistics from IDEC annual report 1997 and National Cancer
      Institute web site:

      56,800 new nHL patients(All
      Median survival rate for low grade lymphomas 6.6
      The number of nHL cases (All Grades) is increasing at
      a rate of 5.9% a year.
      Total number of nHL
      patients in US 270K 90% B-cell Lymphoma.
      The majority
      of nHL cases appear in North America.

      the American Cancer Society:" Since the early 1970's,
      incidence rates for nHL have nearly doubled; during the
      1990's, the rate of increase appeared to be slowing.

      As a M.D. or a Ph.D., you should know that a drug
      coming out of phase III still has a large chance of not
      being apprroved. The problem that Bexxar is having is
      just such an example.

      I was at an investor
      meeting where IDEC representatives spoke about the number
      of oncologists that had tried Rituxan. Their numbers
      disagree with yours.


      P.S. To those that
      require it, Rituxan is alot more than just EPS and Stock
      price. My apologies to anyone I made feel like a number.
      We are not talking about wiggits here, we are
      talking about people.

    • I am a firm believer is Idec, but I am also a
      firm believer in diversification. I don't like to have
      too many eggs in one basket. In your case, I wouldn't
      be as conservative as some of the other replies you
      got on this board, but that is because we all are
      different and have different goals and risk tolerances. I
      wouldn't buy bonds. If I were in your shoes I would put a
      portion of my money into a good equity mutual fund or
      funds. But this is not something that you should do
      without carefully researching mutual funds and finding
      the right one for you. Try to find a good no-load
      fund. If you are unfamiliar with mutual funds, go to
      the libary and find a primer on the subject.
      Investing is hard work and you have to do your homework. Do
      not make a move without considering the tax
      implications of what your are about to do. You have made a lot
      of profit in this stock and will see a sizable
      portion go to taxes. Fortunately because this sounds like
      it will be a long term capital gain, you won't lose
      the sun and the moon. Without knowing all the facts,
      I THINK I would keep half in IDPH and put half in a
      mutual fund. You may find that you can't bring yourself
      to sell that much all at once, but what about
      selling 10% at a time? You will probably make more money
      with Idec, but your risk level is very high. If you
      can't bring yourself to sell some of the Idec, then
      start diversifying by getting on a regular investment
      plan. Start putting away money every month in an equity
      mutual fund. Before long, Idec won't be such a large
      percentage of your portfolio.

    • for...

      Good luck to all IDPH'ers...


    • I see IDPH dropping to about 115-119 over the
      next couple of weeks. The stock has risen too much and
      needs to consolidate. After it drops below 120 then
      that is the time it can move higher in october. The
      MMs will drop the stock to the low 100 teens. but of
      course there also could be a market correction which
      will put IDPH at about $95-$105 per share.

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