IDPH liked by Merrill Lynch among other biotechs.
Upgrades from near buy to accumulate and retain long term
buy rating. Merrill Lynch positive in rerating of
biotechs. Stocks mentioned were MEDI, AMGN, BGEN, IDPH,
Thanks so much for your informing me that drugs
and diseases are effecting human beings and their
families. After spending over 50,000 hours caring for
patients night and day (the doctorbyday is a kind of
misnomer) it never occured to me that the people I was
treating were anything more than a means of increasing my
net worth through pharmaceutical company profits. The
struggle my wife and I have had fighting Non-Hodgkins
Lymphoma for the past 14 years has also left me equally
clueless about how NHL could effect a family.
attempt to mask promoting your short position in IDEC by
trying to show you have some compassion for those with
illness was truely pathetic, insulting to myself
personally and professionally, and an insult to the
intelligence of the readers of your post. I encourage others
to not even dignify your future posts with reading
them, be assured I won't waste my time.
with the others who've responded to your question
about diversification, that no matter how good any
single investment appears, it's safer to not have too
much of your net worth tied up in it. Most people
prefer not to have all their eggs in one basket, to use
an expression no one's ever heard
That's probably what the financial planner you spoke to
had in mind when he suggested you buy mutual funds.
Turns out you did very well holding IDPH instead, but
if shares were now $5 or $10 instead of $130
something, you would have wished you had listened to him (or
her;-) and bought mutual funds that went up, say, 15%
per year. Point is, the future is uncertain, and
diversification spreads the risk. Unfortunately, it also dilutes
the impact of your big winners. In retrospect, you
did the right thing.
It's difficult to give
any specific advice without knowing more about your
overall financial situation, short and long term goals,
general tolerance for risk, interest in keeping
accounting and tax records associated with an actively
managed portfolio, or sentimentality about holding stock
in your former employer (or even the total number of
shares, cost basis, or anything else!)
thing to do would be to just hold on to the shares and
diversify by buying different individual stocks or mutual
funds with your new investment money. You could sell a
few IDPH shares periodically to increase your
diversification rate as new investment ideas come along or if
your financial needs change. Some people set specific
price targets and sell a percentage of their holdings
when the stock price rises to the target.
don't sound like you intend to sell all your IDPH, and
that's good, because it's likely that what you move the
money into won't perform as well as IDEC stock will if
the company's fortunes continue to go as well as they
have been going and appear to still be going. But, and
here's the important part, if IDEC runs into trouble,
you won't be hurt as much if you're diversified as
you would be if it's your only investment.
you don't mind the fluctuations and don't have any
better investment ideas, you're probably better off
staying with IDPH.
There *was* some interesting speculation going on
back then, wasn't there? Reminds me of those lists of
similarities you see between Lincoln and Kennedy... Here's
another one: Partner Schering in now in common. I still
see potential synergies.
Anyway, best of luck
with ILXO and LKST. Still got my eye on them, but
right now I'm throwing most of my new $ at networking,
storage, and telecomm stocks.
looking back over some old posts and see that an era of wondering and speculative
thinking (concerning IDPH and ILXO) has now officially come to an end...
Good wishes for everyone on the IDEC train! (Or should I say, "locomotive"???)
I understand how a technician could be concerned
about IDPH's present chart, and the market itself, for
that matter. The recent lack of volume on up moves has
me only about 75-80% in stocks at present, which is
my lowest level since Dec. 1990. But about 10% of
that 75-80% is IDPH, which I plan to hang onto for as
long as the fundamentals keep looking as good as they
do now. I will let the traders provide the liquidity
we long-term longs will need on that day in the (I
hope very distant) future when we need to cash in.
from a technical standpoint-is ayone concerned
about serious looking crossover-I know all you loyal
IDPH longs are not too concerned-but i am--but then
again im not that loyal-only had position for a couple
I am sorry I was wrong, 600M in Rituxan
earnings to IDEC equals 250K patients.
When I was
young they called it old math. For IDEC to earn 600M:
600M /0.3(IDEC receives 30% of Rituxan sales)= 2.0B in
total sales. $2.0B/$8000( Cost of treatment)=250K
patients per year.
Colter expects this market to be
worth 400M in 3-5 years. (Press release 06/30/99). That
equals 120M in earnings to IDEC or $2.60
With all 56,800 new nHL patients receiving treatment
with Rituxan equals $136.3M in earnings to IDEC,
subtract your your 170M. That equals a 33.7M
Statistics from IDEC annual report 1997 and National Cancer
Institute web site:
56,800 new nHL patients(All
Median survival rate for low grade lymphomas 6.6
The number of nHL cases (All Grades) is increasing at
a rate of 5.9% a year.
Total number of nHL
patients in US 270K 90% B-cell Lymphoma.
of nHL cases appear in North America.
the American Cancer Society:" Since the early 1970's,
incidence rates for nHL have nearly doubled; during the
1990's, the rate of increase appeared to be slowing.
As a M.D. or a Ph.D., you should know that a drug
coming out of phase III still has a large chance of not
being apprroved. The problem that Bexxar is having is
just such an example.
I was at an investor
meeting where IDEC representatives spoke about the number
of oncologists that had tried Rituxan. Their numbers
disagree with yours.
P.S. To those that
require it, Rituxan is alot more than just EPS and Stock
price. My apologies to anyone I made feel like a number.
We are not talking about wiggits here, we are
talking about people.
I am a firm believer is Idec, but I am also a
firm believer in diversification. I don't like to have
too many eggs in one basket. In your case, I wouldn't
be as conservative as some of the other replies you
got on this board, but that is because we all are
different and have different goals and risk tolerances. I
wouldn't buy bonds. If I were in your shoes I would put a
portion of my money into a good equity mutual fund or
funds. But this is not something that you should do
without carefully researching mutual funds and finding
the right one for you. Try to find a good no-load
fund. If you are unfamiliar with mutual funds, go to
the libary and find a primer on the subject.
Investing is hard work and you have to do your homework. Do
not make a move without considering the tax
implications of what your are about to do. You have made a lot
of profit in this stock and will see a sizable
portion go to taxes. Fortunately because this sounds like
it will be a long term capital gain, you won't lose
the sun and the moon. Without knowing all the facts,
I THINK I would keep half in IDPH and put half in a
mutual fund. You may find that you can't bring yourself
to sell that much all at once, but what about
selling 10% at a time? You will probably make more money
with Idec, but your risk level is very high. If you
can't bring yourself to sell some of the Idec, then
start diversifying by getting on a regular investment
plan. Start putting away money every month in an equity
mutual fund. Before long, Idec won't be such a large
percentage of your portfolio.
I see IDPH dropping to about 115-119 over the
next couple of weeks. The stock has risen too much and
needs to consolidate. After it drops below 120 then
that is the time it can move higher in october. The
MMs will drop the stock to the low 100 teens. but of
course there also could be a market correction which
will put IDPH at about $95-$105 per share.