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Biogen Idec Inc. Message Board

  • corrchess_IM corrchess_IM Jan 5, 2000 10:26 AM Flag

    PS to last message

    That is, unless there is a news story circulating that I haven't seen, in which case one should let the fallout from that settle in. In particular, those Rituxan numbers should be due out very soon.

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    • Just remember that the published Rituxan + CHOP study is in itself, only a Phase II trial.

    • Good point. I was thinking from the perspective
      of acceptance by the physician and what might be a
      more readily accepted form of treatment. Rituxan is
      very well tolerated and has become very widely
      accepted. CHOP is already a standard treatment, even with
      the associated toxic side effects. It wouldn't be a
      big leap of faith for a physician to prescribe both
      treatments for a patient with intermediate to high grade
      lymphoma givin that the Rituxan doesn't seem to contribute
      any more toxicity to the cocktail than CHOP
      alone.

      Both Zevalin and Bexxar will be radiocative and
      therefore I would think pose some new risk to the
      physician. Perhaps one or both of these treatments will
      become rapidly adopted just as Rituxan has and their use
      will grow rapidly.

      These of course are only my
      on opinions based on these perceptions described
      above. If Bexxar gets back on track in the next couple
      of months they will get some very valuable exposure
      in the clinical setting which could help them
      establish their therapy as an agressive front line
      treatment. That might leave Zevalin standing at the door
      without a date. But no matter how you look at
      it...

      Hamsters Are Still Good For You!

    • the gold standard and the only curable treatment
      for intermediate and high grade lymphomas is
      chop(proven by a phase 3 study looking at this regimen versus
      several more aggressive treatment regimens).Researchers
      are now currently looking at chop vs. chop plus
      rituxan to see if this is an improvement over the gold
      standard.
      Your opinion which states that bexxar is on
      equal standing with chop plus rituxan is baseless. at
      this time bexxar is a unapproved drug thus it's
      application in this disease is completely unknown. In
      addition, if approved, it would at best be a salvage
      treatment for lymphomas (akin to rituxans approved
      indication). No one would ever put this as front line therapy
      without a phase 3 study.

    • Rituxan plus CHOP really is delivering exciting
      results. However, one of the biggest selling points of
      Rituxan is that it has such a good side effect profile.
      That is lost when you combine it with chemotherapy. In
      my opinion, Rituxan plus CHOP will not displace
      Bexxar. If you look at the data from ASH, there was an
      abstract on Bexxar plus Fludarabine that had comparable
      results to Rituxan plus CHOP.

    • this stock will keep moving. We know that Rituxan
      sales will be below expectations. Hecht of ML has
      earnings expectations of 19.5 cents this quarter while the
      rest of the street is about 5 cents
      higher.

      This lowered expectations from ML has been known since
      late November and yet the stock has rallied nearly
      100% in that period.

      The great success of
      antibody-based drugs is attracting a lot of competitors. Here I
      quote from a news story about
      ABGX.


      "Antibody-based drugs, once called magic bullets, are booming.
      Sales of many new products are vastly exceeding
      expectations, among them: Centocor's (Nasdaq:CNTO - news)
      ReoPro, Genentech's (NYSE:DNA - news) Herceptin,
      MedImmune's (Nasdaq:MEDI - news) Synagis, and IDEC's
      (Nasdaq:IDPH - news) Rituxan among others.

      More than
      250 companies have 200-plus antibody products under
      development. Estimates for several antibody products have been
      increased to reflect better-than-expected market
      penetration. Further upward revisions are possible, as current
      products exceed original estimates and new products
      advance toward the market."

      The competition in the
      biotechnology is heating up. How can you justify a 100 PE with
      an increasing pace of new drug
      development?

      IMHO, it is somewhat of a mania. But I have been wrong
      before.

    • I see that the analysts comments here are geared
      specifically towards Rituxan and Zeavalin. I think they are
      overlooking a very important and potentially very profitable
      aspect of Rituxan. The clinical trials that they have
      done with Rituxan plus CHOP has shown this to be an
      incredibly effective treatment for people with intermediate
      to high grade lymphoma. This could very well
      displace both Zevalin and Bexxar as alternative treatments
      givin its effectiveness. Timing wise, we could see a
      label expansion for this use as early as 2001. I would
      be curious to know if insurance would pay for the
      use of Rituxan and CHOP for patients diagnosed
      currently diagnosed with B-cell lymphoma.

      This is a
      comment to the general discussion that has been taking
      place over the last week or so. If you don't have any
      reason to sell your long position on IDEC, then why do
      it. I sold a portion of my position on Jan. 3rd
      because IDEC had surpassed all expectations I had. I used
      the money to pay capital gains and purchase stuff.
      Its fun to buy stuff that you otherwise would never
      be able to indulge in. I also have some of the money
      sidelined in case we have some fire sales in February. You
      should only sell off your position if you have a good
      reason to do so, and the reason can be a simple as the
      stock has fulfilled your expectations. Someone here
      said, real wealth is built by buying and holding good
      stocks long term. I have held IDEC since 1994 and 1995
      and have sold bits and pieces all the way up the
      ladder. If I had never sold any, oh my. But then again, I
      wouldn't have all this cool stuff. And that to me is why
      we invest, to enjoy the returns.

      Hamsters Are
      Good For You!

    • Thanks for the ibd post... good reading. I
      checked out the stocks you noted you were in. I found
      nbix to be very attractive but considering where they
      are in development it seems presently they are richly
      valued. I don't believe idec ever had a higher market cap
      than nbix now has prior to rituxan approval. If it
      backs off a bit I may well buy. Good luck with it and
      the others.

    • IBD article, paragraph 5:

      "IDEC may have
      and edge having been first to market with
      Rituxan.

      "'Zevalin has been tested with Rituxan vs. Rituxan alone,'
      notes Dayton Misfeldt of Cruttenden
      Roth.

      "Longer term, both drugs have the potential to eventually
      replace chemotherapy and radiation for some forms of
      cancer treatment, analysts say. For now, Zevalin and
      Bexxar will be niche products used as late-stage
      therapy. Additionally, doctors will have to become better
      acquainted with the new drugs, Misfeldt says.

      "Beyond
      the fundamentals, IDEC has received a boost from some
      less tangible developments. These include a December
      stock split and recent takeover rumors.

      "The
      takeover speculation may be nothing more than that. Either
      way, IDEC will continue to benefit from the interest
      that merger activity in health care, concentrated
      among cancer companies, is bringing to the
      sector.

      "'We view further consolidation as a key fundamental
      tenant for optimism in 2000,' says Peter Ginsberg of US
      Bancorp Piper Jaffray. 'Many companies are attempting to
      expand their oncology effort or build from scratch."

    • has the company made any announcements or
      indications of Rituxan sales? There has been much speculation
      that the last quarter's sales were inflated due to the
      market expectation of a price increase, and subsequent
      inventory build-up prior to the price increase taking
      effect.

      • 2 Replies to biotech_weasel
      • Merrill's Hecht has sales of $70 million for the
        last quarter. That's caused by a $7 million inventory
        carryover from the previous quarter. The sales for December
        are estimated to be $28 million.

        Merrill's
        Hecht has not changed his price target of $83 which he
        had upped from $75 in late November/early December on
        Zevalin news.

        My concern is that the Lehman report
        suggests that inventory problems may carry into the first
        quarter of 2000 which is something that the Merrill
        report does not even consider.

        We will find out
        Rituxan sales in the next few days when DNA announces.
        IDPH's earnings come out much later.

      • This time on the "COMPANIES IN THE NEWS"
        page:

        Biotech Slips, Then Snaps Back To Make Rare Visit Into
        Black, by C. Lacoursiere, IBD

        (Article is
        accompanied by info-packed graph in half page exposee...IBD
        chooses one company per business day to profile in this
        section)

        "In September, highflying biotech IDEC
        Pharmaceuticals slipped a little bit on the revenue side.


        "The developer of breakthrough drugs to treat cancer
        and autoimmune diseases appeared to be on track to
        register strong earnings growth for 1999. Then it
        stumbled. Excess inventories for its first and only
        commercial product, Rituxan, led to lower-than-expected
        third-quarter sales.

        "While the shortfall was modest, a
        few percentage points matter in this fickle market.
        Even Merrill Lynch, one of IDEC's staunchest
        defenders, had lowered third-quarter and 1999 fiscal year
        estimates. Soon after, the inventory bulge led to further
        downward revisions of fourth-quarter sales and earnings
        numbers.

        "But IDEC didn't stay down for long. Its solid
        fundamentals are carrying it through, analysts
        say.

        "'We think it is the best biotech in the sector,' said
        Eric Hecht of Merrill Lynch, one of three analysts to
        up their ratings in recent months."

        DS again:
        there are 4 more paragraphs, which I will relate in
        subsequent posts. Why? ...as I've said before, I don't like
        the story just because I own the stock: I own the
        stock because I like the story. big difference. as
        always, every investor should do their own DD.

 
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