That is, unless there is a news story circulating that I haven't seen, in which case one should let the fallout from that settle in. In particular, those Rituxan numbers should be due out very soon.
Good point. I was thinking from the perspective
of acceptance by the physician and what might be a
more readily accepted form of treatment. Rituxan is
very well tolerated and has become very widely
accepted. CHOP is already a standard treatment, even with
the associated toxic side effects. It wouldn't be a
big leap of faith for a physician to prescribe both
treatments for a patient with intermediate to high grade
lymphoma givin that the Rituxan doesn't seem to contribute
any more toxicity to the cocktail than CHOP
Both Zevalin and Bexxar will be radiocative and
therefore I would think pose some new risk to the
physician. Perhaps one or both of these treatments will
become rapidly adopted just as Rituxan has and their use
will grow rapidly.
These of course are only my
on opinions based on these perceptions described
above. If Bexxar gets back on track in the next couple
of months they will get some very valuable exposure
in the clinical setting which could help them
establish their therapy as an agressive front line
treatment. That might leave Zevalin standing at the door
without a date. But no matter how you look at
Hamsters Are Still Good For You!
the gold standard and the only curable treatment
for intermediate and high grade lymphomas is
chop(proven by a phase 3 study looking at this regimen versus
several more aggressive treatment regimens).Researchers
are now currently looking at chop vs. chop plus
rituxan to see if this is an improvement over the gold
Your opinion which states that bexxar is on
equal standing with chop plus rituxan is baseless. at
this time bexxar is a unapproved drug thus it's
application in this disease is completely unknown. In
addition, if approved, it would at best be a salvage
treatment for lymphomas (akin to rituxans approved
indication). No one would ever put this as front line therapy
without a phase 3 study.
Rituxan plus CHOP really is delivering exciting
results. However, one of the biggest selling points of
Rituxan is that it has such a good side effect profile.
That is lost when you combine it with chemotherapy. In
my opinion, Rituxan plus CHOP will not displace
Bexxar. If you look at the data from ASH, there was an
abstract on Bexxar plus Fludarabine that had comparable
results to Rituxan plus CHOP.
this stock will keep moving. We know that Rituxan
sales will be below expectations. Hecht of ML has
earnings expectations of 19.5 cents this quarter while the
rest of the street is about 5 cents
This lowered expectations from ML has been known since
late November and yet the stock has rallied nearly
100% in that period.
The great success of
antibody-based drugs is attracting a lot of competitors. Here I
quote from a news story about
"Antibody-based drugs, once called magic bullets, are booming.
Sales of many new products are vastly exceeding
expectations, among them: Centocor's (Nasdaq:CNTO - news)
ReoPro, Genentech's (NYSE:DNA - news) Herceptin,
MedImmune's (Nasdaq:MEDI - news) Synagis, and IDEC's
(Nasdaq:IDPH - news) Rituxan among others.
250 companies have 200-plus antibody products under
development. Estimates for several antibody products have been
increased to reflect better-than-expected market
penetration. Further upward revisions are possible, as current
products exceed original estimates and new products
advance toward the market."
The competition in the
biotechnology is heating up. How can you justify a 100 PE with
an increasing pace of new drug
IMHO, it is somewhat of a mania. But I have been wrong
I see that the analysts comments here are geared
specifically towards Rituxan and Zeavalin. I think they are
overlooking a very important and potentially very profitable
aspect of Rituxan. The clinical trials that they have
done with Rituxan plus CHOP has shown this to be an
incredibly effective treatment for people with intermediate
to high grade lymphoma. This could very well
displace both Zevalin and Bexxar as alternative treatments
givin its effectiveness. Timing wise, we could see a
label expansion for this use as early as 2001. I would
be curious to know if insurance would pay for the
use of Rituxan and CHOP for patients diagnosed
currently diagnosed with B-cell lymphoma.
This is a
comment to the general discussion that has been taking
place over the last week or so. If you don't have any
reason to sell your long position on IDEC, then why do
it. I sold a portion of my position on Jan. 3rd
because IDEC had surpassed all expectations I had. I used
the money to pay capital gains and purchase stuff.
Its fun to buy stuff that you otherwise would never
be able to indulge in. I also have some of the money
sidelined in case we have some fire sales in February. You
should only sell off your position if you have a good
reason to do so, and the reason can be a simple as the
stock has fulfilled your expectations. Someone here
said, real wealth is built by buying and holding good
stocks long term. I have held IDEC since 1994 and 1995
and have sold bits and pieces all the way up the
ladder. If I had never sold any, oh my. But then again, I
wouldn't have all this cool stuff. And that to me is why
we invest, to enjoy the returns.
Good For You!
Thanks for the ibd post... good reading. I
checked out the stocks you noted you were in. I found
nbix to be very attractive but considering where they
are in development it seems presently they are richly
valued. I don't believe idec ever had a higher market cap
than nbix now has prior to rituxan approval. If it
backs off a bit I may well buy. Good luck with it and
IBD article, paragraph 5:
"IDEC may have
and edge having been first to market with
"'Zevalin has been tested with Rituxan vs. Rituxan alone,'
notes Dayton Misfeldt of Cruttenden
"Longer term, both drugs have the potential to eventually
replace chemotherapy and radiation for some forms of
cancer treatment, analysts say. For now, Zevalin and
Bexxar will be niche products used as late-stage
therapy. Additionally, doctors will have to become better
acquainted with the new drugs, Misfeldt says.
the fundamentals, IDEC has received a boost from some
less tangible developments. These include a December
stock split and recent takeover rumors.
takeover speculation may be nothing more than that. Either
way, IDEC will continue to benefit from the interest
that merger activity in health care, concentrated
among cancer companies, is bringing to the
"'We view further consolidation as a key fundamental
tenant for optimism in 2000,' says Peter Ginsberg of US
Bancorp Piper Jaffray. 'Many companies are attempting to
expand their oncology effort or build from scratch."
has the company made any announcements or
indications of Rituxan sales? There has been much speculation
that the last quarter's sales were inflated due to the
market expectation of a price increase, and subsequent
inventory build-up prior to the price increase taking
Merrill's Hecht has sales of $70 million for the
last quarter. That's caused by a $7 million inventory
carryover from the previous quarter. The sales for December
are estimated to be $28 million.
Hecht has not changed his price target of $83 which he
had upped from $75 in late November/early December on
My concern is that the Lehman report
suggests that inventory problems may carry into the first
quarter of 2000 which is something that the Merrill
report does not even consider.
We will find out
Rituxan sales in the next few days when DNA announces.
IDPH's earnings come out much later.
This time on the "COMPANIES IN THE NEWS"
Biotech Slips, Then Snaps Back To Make Rare Visit Into
Black, by C. Lacoursiere, IBD
accompanied by info-packed graph in half page exposee...IBD
chooses one company per business day to profile in this
"In September, highflying biotech IDEC
Pharmaceuticals slipped a little bit on the revenue side.
"The developer of breakthrough drugs to treat cancer
and autoimmune diseases appeared to be on track to
register strong earnings growth for 1999. Then it
stumbled. Excess inventories for its first and only
commercial product, Rituxan, led to lower-than-expected
"While the shortfall was modest, a
few percentage points matter in this fickle market.
Even Merrill Lynch, one of IDEC's staunchest
defenders, had lowered third-quarter and 1999 fiscal year
estimates. Soon after, the inventory bulge led to further
downward revisions of fourth-quarter sales and earnings
"But IDEC didn't stay down for long. Its solid
fundamentals are carrying it through, analysts
"'We think it is the best biotech in the sector,' said
Eric Hecht of Merrill Lynch, one of three analysts to
up their ratings in recent months."
there are 4 more paragraphs, which I will relate in
subsequent posts. Why? ...as I've said before, I don't like
the story just because I own the stock: I own the
stock because I like the story. big difference. as
always, every investor should do their own DD.