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Biogen Inc. Message Board

  • DavidSage DavidSage Feb 2, 2000 3:45 PM Flag

    timeframes and challenges

    ews. The
    market in a one-day (IMO inefficient) move revalued not
    only years of past and future work in the field of
    radiolabelled antibody therapy for NHL but also the comparative
    company resources and experience, an interesting day
    indeed when coupled with the quarter point "bombshell",
    LOL. Once again happy to be diversified, though ol'
    corchess can have his value stocks, I'll take the growth
    and high PE's: chips, software, networking, wireless,
    and of course, biotech. Can live with the volatile 5
    day and 3 month charts when the 1, 2 and 5 year lines
    are so steeply rising.

    Savvy insiders will
    probably use this decline as an opportunity to exercise
    and hold some options to both start the one year LT
    cap gain clock ticking and minimize exposure to the
    AMT. The sharpest will have cash on hand from recent
    small sales above about 115 (last month's price
    ffsake!) to make the play. Other long term stockholders
    could take a cue, buying the dips in strong stocks'
    trendlines is one of the best ways to profit over
    time.

    It will take at least another 2 years for this
    Bexxar vs Zevalin story to unfold, and the jury is
    definitely still out. Sitting on the panel are the FDA, the
    oncology market, the patients, the patent lawyers, and the
    employees and contractors of the companies themselves. Both
    firms still need to file their respective BLAs, but
    that's just one step (a huge difficult hurdle, granted,
    one that a lot of work goes into completing and
    submitting and a step SOME companies intend to get right the
    first time ;-) Each company also has to ramp up
    manufacturing to a commercial scale, something in which IDEC
    has previously demonstrated proficiency, while
    Coulter has not. Both companies rely on contract
    manufacturers for production of these complicated products,
    Coulter to a much larger degree since IDEC manufactures
    its own antibodies at full scale. These Mfg. and
    Quality operations will be inspected by FDA
    representatives; I understand these inspections can be rigorous
    and often require corrective actions. Delays are the
    rule, not the exception, as producing these drugs under
    cGMPs is never a cakewalk and the Agency takes its job
    seriously. The BRMAC recommendation is another variable,
    although both drugs' clinical data strongly supports
    approval.

    The patent issue has always been something of a wild
    card; speculation from legal minds is welcome here.
    Check out the CLTR board for some rational if biased
    thoughts. Worst case for IDEC is Zevalin goes away and
    Bexxar cuts into Rituxan sales. Not gonna happen this
    year, probably not next. By 2002 both Rituxan sales and
    more of IDEC's pipeline will be maturing and a lot
    more information will be built into the stock price;
    today will be a tiny blip (as will last week's foray
    above 140). By 2005, Rituxan will be considered
    IDEC-the-cash-machine's *first* blockbuster and we'll have another couple
    of "split arrows" to smile about on our charts.


    Accumulate below 115, buy aggressively under 90.

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    • antacid or dramamine, lol. Volatility is our
      friend as LONG as it's up up down up up up down up up up
      up...

      BTW, we all must be a little jaded: up 13% yesterday
      and we kinda yawn and say thats nice.

      Last
      week is looking more and more like a sweep of the
      stops, strong support above 100.

      Look for
      consolidation in the 120-140 range for a few weeks before
      running to new highs in Q2.

    • On a lighter note, do you think we can get IDPH to mail a package of antacid tablets with the next quarterly report? This price action is leaving me disoriented.

    • "the average patent may not be worth the paper
      it's written on". That is because many useless and
      unmarketable products are also patented. The important patents
      are worth a fortune,just aks T. Edison and Bell. Oops
      they died rich !
      Posession is 9/10 of the
      law.

      Coulter and Idec worked co-operatively for a while on a
      product, I lost track of which one( they at least shared
      information) but I think it was the bexxar/zevalin item. Looks
      like coulter grabbed the goods and ran off to the bank
      first ( or the patent office in this case).
      If
      some one has more precise information in this matter
      their comments are welcome.

    • Careful with those inferences, Iron2. I worked in
      the government for a while, and have a pretty good
      idea what patent examiners are like.

      1) There
      is a wide distribution of ability, ranging from
      top-notch and attentive, to career, marginally competent
      bureaucrat. No one knows which kind looked at the CLTR and
      IDPH patents.

      2) Patent examiners are
      absolutely overwhelmed by the volume of the applications
      that are literally flooding in today. They are
      underpaid relative to the work they do, and the really good
      ones are overworked and underappreciated. There is no
      way they can devote the amount of time to a single
      patent that an inventor, or a stakeholder, would like to
      think.

      3) Patent examiners do not make patent law. Their
      decision really starts the process.

      My point is
      that the granting of a patent is not always a
      significant or even a sensible occurrence. In fact, the
      "average" patent is not worth the paper it is written on. I
      hope that eventually both the CLTR and IDPH patents in
      this particular case become extremely lucrative for
      both companies, and beneficial to the patients these
      treatments could help.

      That said, I basically agree
      with your point D, so our respective perceptions of
      the patent process are irrelevant, and our opinions
      on this point don't matter, except as to how they
      may affect buy/sell/hold decisions. I will re-state
      my hope that, if Bexxar and Zevalin are both
      effective, that IDPH and CLTR come to a quick resolution of
      the IP issues, and go on about their businesses. If
      that doesn't happen in the next 3-6 months, it remains
      my contention that the most probable outcome in that
      case is that only the lawyers win.

    • Putting together several posts on this board and
      the CLTR board, one should come to the following
      conclusions:

      A. That Zevalin reads on the following composition
      of matter claim of the Coulter Patent -

      1. A
      composition comprising:

      (1) a radioactively labelled
      monoclonal antibody or radioactively labelled monoclonal
      antibody fragment in an amount providing 1 to 200 mCi of
      radioactivity and providing irradiation in a dose range of 10
      to 200 cGy to the whole body of a human patient,
      said amount being effective for achieving remission of
      B-cell lymphoma in the patient, wherein said antibody or
      said antibody fragment binds to CD20 antigen present
      on the surface of cells of B-cell lymphoma and
      wherein the amount of radioactivity that labels the
      antibody or antibody fragment is less than the amount
      which causes myelosuppression severe enough to require
      the reintroduction of hematopoietic stem cells into
      said patient in order for the patient to recover
      hematopoietic function, and

      (2) a pharmaceutically
      acceptable carrier

      If anyone thinks that Zevalin does
      not conflict with this claim - show how this could be
      so.

      B. That composition of matter claims are superior to
      method claims.

      C. That the "prior art" argument
      of the 1978 New England Journal of Medicine article
      cited by Merrill has no weight. The background section
      of the Coulter patent is solid. Patent examiners are
      not as stupid as some posters would have you believe.
      If anything, most are unforgivingly
      thorough.

      D. That there are two ways for IDEC to get around
      the claim stated above 1) Prove that the conception
      leading to Zevalin was disclosed at a date before the
      conception leading to the Coulter claim above 2) Negotiate a
      settlement.

    • my understanding is that cltr's patent does not conflict with IDPH; the products of each co. are different and will co-exist.

    • US5736137: Therapeutic application of chimeric
      and radiolabeled antibodies to human B lymphocyte
      restricted differentiation antigen for treatment of B cell
      lymphoma


      http://www.patents.ibm.com/details?pn=US05736137__

      Buy IDPH while its still cheap?

    • Thanks for clearing up the info on the Avalon
      group - that sounds like a hard way to make a living.
      If the Forbes article portrays their opinions on
      IDPH accurately, and if that is a reflection of their
      mode of operation, I can now safely ignore them from
      now on.

    • These guys like to short biotechs with no
      earnings. For biotechs that are not heavily traded, AVLN
      and companies can dump a few shares to start an
      avalanche. Right now, they are targeting CLTR, GLIA etc. In
      the case GLIA, they are working with Techvest to
      shake investors' confidence.

      Patents are life
      blood for biotechs with few products in their
      pipelines.

    • negative on IDPH for quite a while. Their claim
      to fame was a story in Forbes in November of last
      year where they said that it was a short. Quoting from
      the Silicon Investor from November 21,
      1999.

      "Oh, oh. Avalon is headed your way. Forbes article:
      "But the stock is overvalued, say analysts at Avalon
      Research Group. . . . And Idec's next drug in the pipeline
      has limited potential. Scheduled for mid-2001,
      Zevalin is a last-resort therapy for non-Hodgkins
      lymphoma patients and has severe side
      effects."
      http://www.forbes.com/forbes/99/1129/6413240a.htm"

      I would see somneone with the name AVLN short IDPH
      consistently when it hit new highs. I assumed it was the same
      Avalon Research Group.

      That's all I know about
      this group.

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