This is how I see it with the help of a stoc
split newsletter that I take. IDPH will announce a
stock split in April as they move towards earnings (or
a board meeting, I can't remember which). As we
approach that date everyone will be piling into IDPH for
the pre-slpit run, and on the announcement it will
have a huge run, pullback make another run until the
stock actually splits.
When the stock splits,
many biotechs like HGSI abd CRA just kept on moving
higher. And what will be great is that after the split,
you will have double the profit because you now have
double the shares.
I know, I know. I don't want
to hear the bullshit about stock splits don't add
value to a stock. But believe me, I play splits a lot.
A pre-split run is taking place, don't miss
April, bet on it. If not sooner.
Don't get me wrong - I like a rising stock price
as much as anyone. But IDPH's management has
consistently made decisions to forego short term, transient
gains in stock price to build long term business for
the company. They have not been an acquirer of other
companies, but have developed their own compounds or made
licensing deals in the past. A few companies have been able
to grow like gangbusters by skillful acquisition -
CSCO is absolutely the most notable example of this -
but it takes a much more activist management style
than IDPH's executives have exhibited in the past.
Folks on this board may care about momentum investors,
and I am absolutely happy to have several on board -
the more the merrier! But I seriously doubt that IDPH
management cares about what the momentum crowd thinks at
all. And that's OK too, as long as they continue to
make good business decisions, which is what counts
most for all of us in the long run. If there is
continued rapid improvement in Rituxan earnings and a
couple of other hits in the pipeline, the splits will
take care of themselves over the next few years.
Many biotechs are rising much faster than IDPH.
Their stock prices are currencies that they can use to
acquire new companies and new talent. IDPH must do its
share to keep pace with them. And a split will provide
new momentum and allow IDPH's stock price to increase
When IDPH was setting its high around the middle of
January, many biotechs (for example, DNA, MEDI, IMNX and
the list is long) were 20 to 30% lower than their
current prices. If the performance of IDPH relative to
other biotechs continues to deteriorate, then we may
see some momentum investors bailing out of IDPH
causing a further decrease in its stock price. I know
momentum investors are a mixed blessing but I would rather
have them working for me than against me.
hope that management is planning a split for IDPH
soon. Contrary viewpoints are welcome.
you are not alone--I sold half of what I had
which was only 500 bought at 4.50 for 19.00 and another
300 at 82 but luckily kept the last 200 till now and
hope the new 400 splits again. I'd like to think it
was skill that got me into IDPH but I'm willing to
admit it was a hunch and an appreciation of what they
were attempting. My broker sold out most of his
clients at around 35--hee hee hee!