Looks like this sucker's getting ready to
But, seriously, whatever the short term market action,
the long term prospects for this company remain very
bright, no matter where we eventually top out on the
I see nothing unusual about the recent insider
sales - going back over the last 2 years, you see
similar activity at much lower prices. Sorry, this is not
a very reliable indicator for this company, or many
I have been playing the CLTR story and have
jumped out and simualted my previous position with a few
options in order to limit risk for the next 15 days -
then will re-set in CLTR as more info becomes
available. These are my greatest fears with IDPH.
Extended run has left shares over-valued
valuation versus companies like BGEN and check the relative
pipelines, BGEN has taken one drug out by itself and has
driven sales of that drug to over 800 million with 15%
or more yearly gain - they have sizable 150 million
a year plus royalty stream - an immune modulator
LFA3TIP concluding phase III for psoriasis with expected
approval in first half 2002 with other immune modulators
throughout pipeline - plus between 800 mil and 1 bil in
available cash and investments- on the other hand I find
IDPH's pipeline to be quite shallow or centered in
molecules with considerably less promise.
2. rituxan has
been growing quickly but has done so by being grossly
over prescribed well beyond current indications - i.e.
patients who do no respond to rituxan are being
chronically treated with it - the NHL market will plateau and
when over drugs i.e. zev and bexxar are approved if
someone fails rit. they will move on to a radioconjugate
or other machination ( and in the not so distint
future IMMU's lymphocide anti-CD22) thus I believe that
rit. growth will slow before and to a degree that zev
cannot hope to replace and sales will flatten out and
IDPH will probably undergo a 30-60% retracement until
other drivers can be found in the pipeline. SEE BGEN,
AMGN, GENZ, CHIR charts for the levelling out of sales
I would not short here but if the
continues to move up and I think about it next summer when
we see the first radioconjugate hit the market and
take some extended rit. sales.
I am interested
to hear someone elses view on this
pinvestment- I could not disagree with you more
about IDEC's pipeline being "shallow or centered in
molecules with considerably less promise", especially when
compared to Biogen. Perhaps we can have a discussion about
the pipelines of the two companies with info taken
right off of their websites.
corchess, et al- I have read your posts with intrest for a
long time and now have the opportunity and time to get
into the discussion (we might even know
Notbill is very good for you too!
In relation to point number 2, i sincerely doubt
you have data to support your statement that it is
"grossly over prescribed" in non-responding patients. It
is true that it has off label use in the int. grade
lymphomas but this is the exception.It also is being used
off label in partially responding patients, bulky
disease and for re-treatment but this is what the new
lable indications will address. Rituxans next huge
market will be with the int-high grade lymphomas as an
addition to the primary therapy(chop). If the phase three
trial is positive then this will be huge.Should the
rheumatoid info have any credibility when subjected to
scientific inquiry then that could potentially be bigger.
I made the mistake of buying puts
on this stock a while back when it was at 50 and boy
did I suffer. Now I am long and staying that way.
This company has a great long term outlook. Go longs!