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Biogen Inc. Message Board

  • corrchess_IM corrchess_IM Nov 1, 2000 3:44 PM Flag

    Shorts, Take Cover!

    Looks like this sucker's getting ready to
    blow!

    But, seriously, whatever the short term market action,
    the long term prospects for this company remain very
    bright, no matter where we eventually top out on the
    present breakout.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Abel Garcia on AIM Advisors reporting on IDPH.
      http://www.bizabstract.com/stockpicks/msg/1245.html

    • I see nothing unusual about the recent insider
      sales - going back over the last 2 years, you see
      similar activity at much lower prices. Sorry, this is not
      a very reliable indicator for this company, or many
      others.

    • Big Boys and Insiders selling big time at these prices. An indication of a top at least for a while?

    • Of course it is GENZ, not GENX. My left hand apparently is a bit dsylezic (oops, dyslexic) this morning.

    • I have been playing the CLTR story and have
      jumped out and simualted my previous position with a few
      options in order to limit risk for the next 15 days -
      then will re-set in CLTR as more info becomes
      available. These are my greatest fears with IDPH.
      1.
      Extended run has left shares over-valued
      check
      valuation versus companies like BGEN and check the relative
      pipelines, BGEN has taken one drug out by itself and has
      driven sales of that drug to over 800 million with 15%
      or more yearly gain - they have sizable 150 million
      a year plus royalty stream - an immune modulator
      LFA3TIP concluding phase III for psoriasis with expected
      approval in first half 2002 with other immune modulators
      throughout pipeline - plus between 800 mil and 1 bil in
      available cash and investments- on the other hand I find
      IDPH's pipeline to be quite shallow or centered in
      molecules with considerably less promise.
      2. rituxan has
      been growing quickly but has done so by being grossly
      over prescribed well beyond current indications - i.e.
      patients who do no respond to rituxan are being
      chronically treated with it - the NHL market will plateau and
      when over drugs i.e. zev and bexxar are approved if
      someone fails rit. they will move on to a radioconjugate
      or other machination ( and in the not so distint
      future IMMU's lymphocide anti-CD22) thus I believe that
      rit. growth will slow before and to a degree that zev
      cannot hope to replace and sales will flatten out and
      IDPH will probably undergo a 30-60% retracement until
      other drivers can be found in the pipeline. SEE BGEN,
      AMGN, GENZ, CHIR charts for the levelling out of sales
      phenomenom -

      I would not short here but if the
      continues to move up and I think about it next summer when
      we see the first radioconjugate hit the market and
      take some extended rit. sales.

      I am interested
      to hear someone elses view on this
      scenario.

      thanks

      • 2 Replies to pinvestment
      • pinvestment- I could not disagree with you more
        about IDEC's pipeline being "shallow or centered in
        molecules with considerably less promise", especially when
        compared to Biogen. Perhaps we can have a discussion about
        the pipelines of the two companies with info taken
        right off of their websites.
        David, Hamsters,
        corchess, et al- I have read your posts with intrest for a
        long time and now have the opportunity and time to get
        into the discussion (we might even know
        eachother).

        Notbill is very good for you too!

      • In relation to point number 2, i sincerely doubt
        you have data to support your statement that it is
        "grossly over prescribed" in non-responding patients. It
        is true that it has off label use in the int. grade
        lymphomas but this is the exception.It also is being used
        off label in partially responding patients, bulky
        disease and for re-treatment but this is what the new
        lable indications will address. Rituxans next huge
        market will be with the int-high grade lymphomas as an
        addition to the primary therapy(chop). If the phase three
        trial is positive then this will be huge.Should the
        rheumatoid info have any credibility when subjected to
        scientific inquiry then that could potentially be bigger.

    • I agree.

      I made the mistake of buying puts
      on this stock a while back when it was at 50 and boy
      did I suffer. Now I am long and staying that way.
      This company has a great long term outlook. Go longs!

 
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