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Biogen Idec Inc. Message Board

  • corrchess_IM corrchess_IM Dec 30, 2000 1:05 AM Flag

    Re: Titanic trader

    No, I won't retire in three years, with or
    without enough money to do so, because I like my real
    job. Truth be told, I trade quite a bit around my core
    long positions, of which IDPH is one. But IDPH is
    presently only ~ 5% of my liquid net worth, as I am not
    hung out on this one - so, don't worry, I'll be
    OK.

    As for your silly list of LTBH stock examples
    (mostly a bunch of internet fluff), I will give you my
    top 13 equity long positions going into 2001, along
    with my present average cost basis per share. Come
    back next January and call me an idiot then if you
    like (or, what the heck, do your due diligence and
    call me out on these now - doesn't matter to me). I'll
    probably still be here - although this list may have
    changed a bit by then, as I don't promise to do a "Louis
    Rukeyser" and keep them untouched. Meanwhile, good luck
    with your trading, because we all need luck, it's just
    a matter of how much.

    1. IBIS (16.90)
    2.
    IDPH (78.91 - yup, all my real cheap shares are sold
    now, and replaced with newer ones purchased during the
    most recent biotech correction last May/June. Asset
    allocation, you know.)
    3. MARSB (9.23)
    4. HOMF
    (18.42)
    5. TMA (7.61)
    6. CLWY (1.17)
    7. ACLS
    (9.64)
    8. ARM (14.99)
    9. CBRL (11.01)
    10. MLM
    (38.60)
    11. LU (19.35)
    12. OSI (23.61)
    13. HLT
    (8.10)

    As always, caveat emptor.

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    • Ok, this is my final post. I've been tracking results for 7 years now, since 1/1/2002. The rules were to pick stocks on Jan 1st each year, and see how they did at the end of that year. No changes allowed during the year. Here are my 2008 results as of 12/31/08:

      long MW: -50%
      long SMRT: -76%
      short HES: +47%
      short GLD: -5%
      short USO: +56%
      ---------------
      '08 total -6%

      Here are my results over the past 7 years, as can be confirmed by following this thread:

      '08: -6%
      '07: -24%
      '06: -23%
      '05: +31%
      '04: -35%
      '03: +28%
      '02: +46%
      ----------
      total: -12%

      The S&P was down about 22% over the past 7 yrs and i was down 12%. In other words, we both sucked! But it probably goes without saying that in reality i didn't do any of these trades. I won't even discuss my actual results over the past 7 years because there is no evidence to back up my claims. I am now done with this experiment. Goodbye.

    • I can't take it anymore! Year after year, humiliation followed by further humiliation! Here are my '07 results:

      long MHA -88%
      long GLD +30%
      long NSTK -75%
      short ASN -4%
      short PCAR +16%
      --------------
      '07 Total -24%

      I was going to throw in the towel, but i'm no quitter! I feel that '08 will produce a major comeback for me.

      For '08, here we go....

      long MW
      long SMRT
      short HES
      short GLD
      short USO

      If you never see me again it's not because i can't take the heat. It's because i'll be living in a cardboard box down at the river with no internet connection.

      The Rubbery Toadstool

    • I just started this year and ACOR was my big winner and loser. I got some at 4.44 and some at 2.77, but then got some at 19.50 and sold at 15.10 it�s now 15.30.
      GENE and SRA where good for me, TEVA was not.

      This year my money is on;

      1. AENS.OB 1.20
      2. EHNX.OB 2.11
      3. BIIB 52.25
      4. GENE 8.01
      5. STP 33.13
      6. SPWR 36.90
      7. KYO 93.23
      8. EWW 50.21 (ETF � Mexico)
      9. FXI 116.68 (ETF - China)
      10. HMC 38.60
      11. TM 131.47
      12. NUAN 11.29
      13. IRBT 18.19

    • Another horrendous year under my belt! Here are my '06 results:

      MHA -38.4%
      COMS +14.2%
      EBAY -30.4%
      APOL -35.5%
      ------------
      Total -22.5%

      The only good news is that going back through the past 5 years, my net result is +23%, which matches the return on the S&P....coulda just bought an index fund i guess.

      For '07 i haven't given it alot of thought but since that doesn't seem to matter let's go with...

      long MHA
      long GLD
      long NSTK
      short ASN
      short PCAR

      H A P P Y . N E W . Y E A R ! ! !

    • Time once again for the annual check-up on performance. Here's the returns from the list of 13 stocks I posted last New Year's:

      1. PFE (+11%)
      2. BUD (+15%)
      3. BIIB (+9%)
      4. GG (+28%)
      5. MRO (+52%)
      6. AMGN (-13%)
      7. TSM (+10%)
      8. FITB (+9%)
      9. WMT (-1%)
      10. MARSA/MARSB (+28%)
      11. WM (+5%)
      12. KO (+20%)
      13. IBIS (-58%)

      Assuming equally weighted positions, that is a cumulative return (not including dividends) of +9%. This compares to Dow +16.3%, SP500 +13.6%, Naz +9.5%. Once again, 2006 was a trader's year, and I did much better than the buy and hold results. I suspect next year will require equal deftness. This year's list at present quote includes mostly new positions:

      1. COP 71.95
      2. DVN 67.08
      3. DAVE 16.49
      4. GG 28.44
      5. CREE 17.32
      6. BIIB 49.19
      7. WM 45.49
      8. IBIS 1.48
      9. BSX 17.18
      10. SCLN 3.22
      11. F 7.51
      12. RF 37.4
      13. GE 37.21

      From last year's list, I have sold everything except those that appear above. #14, not quite making the cut, is IMMU, which deserves a look as well. As always, caveat emptor - your mileage may vary, and better luck to RTS with the 2007 picks. Hope you got out of those trades early!

      Happy New Year, and good luck to all BIIB longs!

    • Wow, the years just keep zipping by but the "wily" rubberytoadstool is still feverishly working from the forest floor. Had a good '05...here are the results:

      long MHA (symbol changed from MHTT): +29%
      long COMS: -14%
      short TASR: +78%
      '05 AVERAGE RESULTS: +31%

      Sticking with a couple of the same stocks for '06 and adding a couple new ones....here's the '06 list:

      long MHA
      long COMS
      long EBAY
      long APOL

      Happy New Year! See you in 2007!

    • Well, BiiB has more than Tysabri going for it now, Rituxan in RA, we'll see how that pans out, ELN for me is pure Tysabri for now, I will be holding it until Tysabri sales start to gain momentum (If & when approved) if sales are ramping up like a space shuttle trajectory, then I will hold on to it and see what their Alzheimers program brings, but I think Tysabri alone will enable me to reach my exit point, I know it's risky playing two companies for one product, but it's not just any product, it's friggin Tysabri lol, I believe it will be a huge drug, with BiiB marketing and knowledge in the MS field, I think it will be positioned to succeed, it's all about marketing, imagine great marketing with an outstanding drug, it was a risk worth taking.

      The wife might not like it, but the mistress sure will (just kidding)

    • Wow - you are making a big bet on Tysabri! I did pretty well trading ELN last year, but sold my position during the runup to 13-14, owing to the overexposure I was developing. There comes a point where one wants to protect one's past gains as much as try for future ones. The stock list would have been much more aggressive for me 10-15 years ago.

      Good luck to you. Rewards (or losses) are proportional to risks, and I've been pulling in the horns a bit. Market feels a bit over-wrought on the speculative side at the moment - overpaying for growth (again), and underpaying for value (again). As the economy slows, this will change (again).

    • Nice collection

      I own 30% eln, 30% biib, 20% gnvc, 10% bpa, 10% oncy in my portfolio.

      biib, eln, oncy up big time (Long time holder)
      gnvc is barely up
      Bpa is down

      I won't be holding bpa and oncy for long, waiting for a good piece of news on either front to sell and put into gnvc, gnvc can be the next osip.

    • My trading results were significantly better than the static list did this year, but there have been other years (2002, for example), when I'd have been better off not to trade.

      Congrats to you! Like anything going into 2006? I really like PFE and BUD at present levels; BIIB could go either way, depending on Rituxan in RA, and Tysabri news.

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BIIB
326.88+6.76(+2.11%)Sep 16 4:00 PMEDT

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