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Biogen Idec Inc. Message Board

  • bargain_hunter91307 bargain_hunter91307 May 29, 2001 2:56 PM Flag

    IDPH delayed response

    IDPH MM always late. Reality will kick in sooner or later. Patiently waiting.

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    • You are correct (not). The amount of correlation over two years is striking (not). A little knowledge is truly a dangerous thing.^ixic&a=v&p=s&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l

    • Right On! The opposite of long is not short. A short is a brokerage product just like limited partnerships and CMA's. The broker is the casino--play the game carefully.

    • Yes, we do have entirely different perspectives on the sizes and durations of the market cycles. To me, Early April to recent is one bull cycle. Some issues already have 100%+ gain during this period. Isn't that good enough for a bull cycle? How many times can we get this kind of run?

      ** I have ramped my holdings up and down twice this year from an equilibrium level, and expect to be in reactive/trading mode for another 1-1.5 years. As for your claim to be able to call market bottoms, it is awfully hard to tell one kind of inflection point from another. But it doesn't really matter. I've always made much more money by holding onto great stocks than by churning. **

      Isn't that how we got lots of great stocks unwinded during the past bear cycle? Too many great stocks did that. Weren't CSCO, SUNW, ORCL, JDSU, EMC, INTC ... great stocks once and for many years? People buy and hold them for long term. What happened to these greatest stocks? Weren't them have a very promising future for many years to come? Now how many years would take before they recover(if they ever did)? Bubbles don't come back second time so soon.

      As your target of 80 for IDPH. I would say you are too optimistic. Especially with such a difficult macro environment. Your range between 50 and 65 is reasonable. But I would say a range between 40 and 70. We could see 70 FY01 Q1 if the market condition improves. But 40s would certainly be in the card before the Fall. I might be wrong on that.

      Tell me one thing:
      If you really see 40s is coming in the next few months, wouldn't you attemp to sell around 55 - 60? And buy back at 40s. If not,why? It's 40%+ gain. How many 40% gain can you get in your portfolio in such a short period of time?

      As for *someone with really deep pockets is always around to take you out of the game*.
      I am patient and calm. I am diversified on my shorts portfolio on this round. Most of them have good gain already. How could *someone* take me out? I am prepared to let IDPH to run to 70.

      Now the questions again:
      1. Can IDPH sustain $9 Billion market cap with its $500 million sales? Not to mention the profit.

      2. What's the potential sales in next 5 years for these 2 drugs combine? How about the profit?

      Dare to dig out the truth and answer these questions?

    • On the contrary, I've already had several issues more than triple on initial bounces - I expect them to now give some back (after lightening up my positions on most), but eventually move higher. Meanwhile, there are opportunities for opportunists with buying power available. In a diversified portfolio, you need the occasional 10-20 baggers to make up for the inevitable mistakes that both you and the market make. Of course, it doesn't matter when the market makes a mistake; no one gives it a margin call, and you have to live with it.

      There are monstrous inefficiencies in the markets that last for years; sometimes one must be patient and keep playing the odds. You may well make money by shorting this stock. But, over the long term, longs beat shorts by an average of 8-10 % per year. I assume you also go long on stocks trending upward; otherwise you would be facing "long odds" indeed. Recognize that many shorts have been impaled by IDPH's performance, thinking it was overvalued over the last few years. Step lightly.

    • What I believe is that no one can safely predict either the short or long term behavior of any single stock with the degree of confidence you are projecting in your analysis. Again I ask - what is your trading experience, and how many market cycles?

      By the way, I bought JDSU in the low 20's about 6 weeks ago; I know that stock and the fiber optics industry reasonably well. I would not compare it to IDPH at all.

    • No - 100% gain is not enough on some issues. I expect many companies to go up 3-5 fold from their recent market lows. But on other issues 30-40% over 1-2 years is a great return. It depends on the company and their likely future prospects.

      As for IDPH, I have seen estimates on peak Rituxan sales from independent analysts (no coverage on the stock) of $1-3 B. This is why institutional interest remains so high, and why so few are cutting out at present levels. More importantly, there has been a tremendous label expansion occurring, and there is just too much uncertainty to say exactly how fast the growth rate will be over the next 1-3 years, but last quarter earnings growth was 600% year over year. No one expects that to continue, but 50-100% earnings growth would not surprise many people this year, and that includes ramped up R&D efforts. It is very hard to make money selling short the stocks of companies whose fundamentals are improving this rapidly. And to try to milk IDPH for 30% on the downside from present levels just seems silly to me. But you are welcome to do what you like - I have seen moves of 800% in this stock in a year (1995), so 30 % just doesn't do much for me on this one. If Rituxan would hit $2-3 B in sales, I expect IDPH will have at least doubled in price sometime in the interim.

      And, no, I don't consider that we have had several bull/bear cycles this year. We have had one choppy, trading market. This year's action has borne no resemblence to the trending markets of 1991, 1995, and 1999 - short stocks during those environments and you get taken out with extreme prejudice when a trading market turns into a trending market. It's probably early for that to happen - but you never know.

      I never said I had a target of 80 for IDPH - I only said I would sell some of my present holdings if we blew past that for no good reason. My expectation is to end this year with the same number of shares I own today, but that is the market's decision as much as mine. I also didn't say I saw 40's coming. Again, I have owned this stock for 9+ years, and I can't put a fair value on it today to within better than a factor of ~ 2. All your trading targets are inside my error bars in valuation.

    • #6608
      ** By the way, I bought JDSU in the low 20's about 6 weeks ago; I know that stock and the fiber optics industry reasonably well. **

      JDSU got cut in half in 2 weeks since Mr. corrchess_IM's purchase. Does any one think Mr. corrchess_IM **know that stock and the fiber optics industry reasonably well** ?

      I am not here to tease Mr. corrchess_IM.
      First, I have to admit that I made a mis-judgement on IDPH's stock. The main one is that I didn't know the effect of Rituxan's broaden usage approved by FDA.

      Back to JDSU, how ofen can a stock make 100% gain? It would be 100% gain from $12s to low $20s. Sure, Mr. corrchess_IM can claim he would hold it for 10 more years,but ...

      Not just Mr. corrchess_IM know a stock **reasonably well** would provide him with good judgement on the stock's performance.
      What we saw is the bubbles got bursted,first internet industry, next fiber optics industry, then the infrastructure industry, One by one, just spread into different time slots.
      Once a bubble is bursted, do you expect it to comes back within years? Check the history,you will know what I mean.

      Do I still hold IDPH shorts? Yes,and underwater. As I mentioned before,I am willing to hold them for 6 months. After reviewing IDPH's fundamental and strength, I am making one correction to my plan: Cover the short sell shares at low to mid 50s, instead of low to mid 40s. This is in respect to Rituxan's new broaden usage.

      In the mean time, my major shorts against fiber optics industry, and the networking infrastructure industry, and QQQ have provided me with much larger gain.

      BTW,anybody here noticed that Composite index and many tech names(I can list at least 20 of them) formed Head and Shoulder pattern as of yesterday's market close. Today's sell off is not a surprise to me at all. Nasdaq has been forming the H&S pattern since early June. Last week when JNPR warns,it further confirm the pattern.
      As how it would follow up,I believe all you stock guru would know. I don't need to say more on that. Mr. corrchess_IM should know **reasonably well** too because of his so many cycles' *experience*.

      Have to admit that I am disappointed about IDPH's strength today against the broad market.
      But tomorrow is the triple witching day. The strength could well related to the option expiration. Its strength might last into 2-3 days next week for big boys to unload their positions. After that we will see how IDPH really performs.

      If last year's experience would provide us some lesson, wouldn't we be scared about the biotech industry's high valuation?

      Just the same as fund managers and analysts promoted internet industry, fiber optics industry, and the networking infrastructure industry last year. The growth was high and they *foresee* many more years' bright future to come. And the valuation was *worth* and not a problem. We all witness how things turn down so fast and so abruptly.
      Valuation does matter at the end, especially when markets turn down. No one can immue from the downturn.

      Bargain Hunter

    • well* about JDSU and fiber optics industry. Not.

      I covered my shorts position on JDSU and other fiber optics stocks and telecomm infrastructure stocks this morning.
      JDSU reached my target of $10s.

      I covered because of put/call ratio reached 1.1 at 10AM CT. If you know what that mean.

      Good Bye

    • What comes quickly can go quickly.

      This is why we sold most of our position.

      Also the valuation is quite high.

      Thank me later.

    • That would be fantastic.
      $9B market cap would be a bargain. This high growth company should have at least $100B market cap!
      I am covering al my shorts on IDPH,and go long with all the money I got!
      Nasdaq going 5000 soon!

      Does that satisfy you?

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