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Biogen Idec Inc. Message Board

  • bargain_hunter91307 bargain_hunter91307 May 29, 2001 2:56 PM Flag

    IDPH delayed response

    IDPH MM always late. Reality will kick in sooner or later. Patiently waiting.
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=c&c=&k=c1&t=3m&s=idph&a=v&p=s&l=on&z=m&q=l&y=on

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    • You are correct (not). The amount of correlation over two years is striking (not). A little knowledge is truly a dangerous thing.

      http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=IDPH&d=c&k=c1&c=^ixic&a=v&p=s&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l

    • You compare IDPH to GE, MRK, AMGN, MSFT, JNJ, INTC ...

      No way IDPH is in that category,they all gradually rise in a prolong period of time. Not like a tulip,pop up in a short period of time. And there sales, profit, and size of the company are much much larger than IDPH's.

      I would put IDPH in the following catergory:
      CRA, PDLI, JDSU, AMZN, PCLN, CMGI, SCMR, RBAK, PMCS ...
      All rise in a short period of time and fade away like a tulip eventually. These issues' growth stories were much more appealing than IDPH's. Turned out to be just a tulip in the time zone.

      IDPH's market cap is in excess of $9 Billion now. Does it worth that much? IDPH's sales was $424 million in FY00. And the profit is only a few million.
      What's the potential market size for IDPH in 5 years? And how much Zevalin can contribute to the sales? Not to a material size to the current Rituxan sales. No matter how fast they grow,the sales and profit won't justify for this kind of valuation. Don't let the tulip type of stock price fool you.
      As you mentioned, mid 50s & mid 40s are the supports. I am not greedy,mid 40s would be my target. And you also mentioned low 60s is the resistance, it's close enough. Why don't you take some chips away from the table and buy back at mid 40s? I might join you at that time.

    • Look at the AMGN chart between the late 80's and today - it moves in discontinuous jumps, followed by consolidation. INTC did the same thing in the 80's and early to mid 90's. This is a standard pattern for rapidly growing companies. If Rituxan earnings keep growing at the pace of the last few years - or accelerate - and Zevalin and/or other products come along, IDPH will not only be fairly valued at 60, but look cheap 3-5 years from now. Do I think IDPH could go to 40 before it goes to 80? Absolutely - in fact, I would say that is about a 50-50 prospect. But my portfolio is set up to be able to easily *survive* that kind of a move, not to *count* on it.

      Every great company is overvalued relative to the market for decades at a time. If you have mistakenly picked a great company to bet against, what a pity it would be to be short. As for me, I have made enough money on the long side that I have been playing with house money (and winning) for many, many years on this stock. And that is because the company continues to impress Wall Street with its execution. You can trade noise if you wish, but I will stick with my long position that I am holding within the framework of a diversified portfolio.

      Just out of curiosity, exactly when did you start trading stocks seriously, and how many market cycles have you lived through?

    • You are comparing orange to apple.
      IDPH is no where near AMGN or INTC's size or their potential when they were in their early stage. The potential market size for IDPH in next 5 years is much smaller,no matter how you *count* it. With both Rituxan and Zevalin in the card. And IDPH does not have the exclusive monopoly as AMGN or earlier INTC.

      Why don't you look at JDSU. Its stock appreciation history is similiar to IDPH's. Pump then dump within a short period of time.
      JDSU's growth rate and promising future were much more appealing than IDPH's. It turned out to be a perfect P/D stock.

      Do I think IDPH could go to 70 before it goes to 40? Absolutely - in fact, I would say that is about a 50-50 prospect. But my portfolio is set up to be able to easily *survive* that kind of a move and you can *count* on it. I will take my profit at 40s sooner or later. The time frame also depends on how the Nasdaq market index perform. With the difficult macro environment, I would say IDPH have a better chance to reach 40s than 70s.

      Once again, IDPH always delays the response to market force. It will be there if market turned south.

      Now do you truely believe:
      1. $9 Billion market cap for IDPH is inexpensive?
      2. 45% gain in 2-3 weeks is not too much?
      3. Insiders are stupid to sell large chuck of shares below this *bargain* price?

    • What I believe is that no one can safely predict either the short or long term behavior of any single stock with the degree of confidence you are projecting in your analysis. Again I ask - what is your trading experience, and how many market cycles?

      By the way, I bought JDSU in the low 20's about 6 weeks ago; I know that stock and the fiber optics industry reasonably well. I would not compare it to IDPH at all.

    • I have to admit that recent IDPH's performance was surprisingly strong compare to the market's. Any catalyst?
      I knew 55/56 was the break out area,now the first level of support. And we saw that support a few days ago. What surprise me is its ability to retest the recent high so quickly. As you may notice, the pump up volume is pathetically low. That usually indicates a failure to clear the resistance. Today we failed to clear the resistance,the question now is if we will hold the 55/56 support. But I might be wrong again,I am prepared for that.

      I've been in many bull/bear cycles. I hardly get wrong on the general market trend. As for individual stock,I could get it wrong. Hope it's not IDPH.

      JDSU,I did bought it at mid 10s around the early April market bottom. I did bought a basket of stocks during the low on early April. Already sold them. Some have very handsome gains.
      You might ask how could I spot the market bottom. There is really no secret on that.
      We had market capitulation during Q1 window dressing,around end of March. Even the professionals gave in. Extreme put/call ratio twice, over 1. Extreme VIX,over 40. Exreme ARM index. Even JDSU gave back all its 800% gain since IPO. I wrote a report on April 2 about the market bottom. If you like,I can send it to you.

      This round of bull phase is done as we heading into the summer. Many indicators and signs of my model already show me that. Hence I shorted QQQ and many other issues. Have to admid that, IDPH is the toughest one so far. Market force will show IDPH its way. Sooner or later. Just delayed response of a different time frame.

      BTW, next bull phase would be after Fall in the Nov,Dec. time frame. Just my projection/prediction.

    • After replying your *curiosity*,
      Now may I ask - what is your trading experience, and how many market cycles? And what's your projection/view of the market from this point to end of the year?

    • Oh, one word about JDSU.

      Due to the overcapacity and inventory problem, telecomm and fiber optics sector would be the last to have a true recover.
      Recent recovery is just a dead cat bounce.

      Semiconductor is the leading indicator. The lowest book to bill ratio show you how deep the problem is. And Greenspan is just using the power to buy some time. The true recovery remains to be seen, not just Wall Street's talk/manipulation can pull it out.

    • Many bull bear cycles? Wow, that is very impressive, since we have been in a secular bull market since about 1982 by some definitions. It sounds as if we have entirely different perspectives on the sizes and durations that comprise a significant move in the market. I also confess that I don't know or care to know what you mean by "pump up volume." This is not a term in any standard technical analysis, but sounds like the analog of day-trader gang-banging lingo. As I have stated before, I regard the entire range between 50 and 65 to be roughly an equivalent range of prices for IDPH. Absent news, I am only interested in buying more if we break below ~ 40 on market or sector weakness, or in selling if we bust out above 80 for no good reason. Between, I am happy to hold my shares and let others toss theirs back and forth.

      As I have mentioned before, I have owned this stock since Jan. 1992 - before that I went into half cash between Sept. 1987 and Dec. 1990. That is my one great market timing call - I don't care to try another. I sell when I am over-exposed on advances, and buy when I think stuff is cheap. I have ramped my holdings up and down twice this year from an equilibrium level, and expect to be in reactive/trading mode for another 1-1.5 years. As for your claim to be able to call market bottoms, it is awfully hard to tell one kind of inflection point from another. But it doesn't really matter. I've always made much more money by holding onto great stocks than by churning. So I only adjust my portfolios by 10-25% on the basis of my opinions - the rest I let build with time. You have to understand that there is so much volatility around market tops and bottoms that, if you throw around really big money on the basis of your opinions, someone with really deep pockets is always around to take you out of the game.

    • Yes, we do have entirely different perspectives on the sizes and durations of the market cycles. To me, Early April to recent is one bull cycle. Some issues already have 100%+ gain during this period. Isn't that good enough for a bull cycle? How many times can we get this kind of run?

      ** I have ramped my holdings up and down twice this year from an equilibrium level, and expect to be in reactive/trading mode for another 1-1.5 years. As for your claim to be able to call market bottoms, it is awfully hard to tell one kind of inflection point from another. But it doesn't really matter. I've always made much more money by holding onto great stocks than by churning. **

      Isn't that how we got lots of great stocks unwinded during the past bear cycle? Too many great stocks did that. Weren't CSCO, SUNW, ORCL, JDSU, EMC, INTC ... great stocks once and for many years? People buy and hold them for long term. What happened to these greatest stocks? Weren't them have a very promising future for many years to come? Now how many years would take before they recover(if they ever did)? Bubbles don't come back second time so soon.

      As your target of 80 for IDPH. I would say you are too optimistic. Especially with such a difficult macro environment. Your range between 50 and 65 is reasonable. But I would say a range between 40 and 70. We could see 70 FY01 Q1 if the market condition improves. But 40s would certainly be in the card before the Fall. I might be wrong on that.

      Tell me one thing:
      If you really see 40s is coming in the next few months, wouldn't you attemp to sell around 55 - 60? And buy back at 40s. If not,why? It's 40%+ gain. How many 40% gain can you get in your portfolio in such a short period of time?

      As for *someone with really deep pockets is always around to take you out of the game*.
      I am patient and calm. I am diversified on my shorts portfolio on this round. Most of them have good gain already. How could *someone* take me out? I am prepared to let IDPH to run to 70.

      Now the questions again:
      1. Can IDPH sustain $9 Billion market cap with its $500 million sales? Not to mention the profit.

      2. What's the potential sales in next 5 years for these 2 drugs combine? How about the profit?

      Dare to dig out the truth and answer these questions?

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