http://finance.yahoo.com/mp/q?idph May 31 9:01AM IDEC Pharm (IDPH) 59.85: Banc of America reiterates STRONG BUY and raises price target to $75; firm cites strong Rituxan sales it believes will surprise to the upside; also expects expanded applications of Rituxan in the future; sees long-term growth rate of 41%. --------
Is 41% good enough for sustaining the valuation? I think some longs expected more on the growth rate.
long-term growth rate? Can any company in the world sustain long-term growth rate of 41%? For how many years? Even the mighty CSCO,MSFT,AMGN,INTC can't last for long on that kind of high growth rate. CSCO's John Chambers was still pretty upbeat on the long term 60% growth rate Dec. 2000. What happen now? Negative growth for at least the rest qtrs of 2001. And waht happened to the fiber optical wonder land? Didn't they said that there are still many more years for internet infrastutruce buildout? And last year was just the beginning.
All these long-term growth rate is just speculation and propaganda for institutions to manipulate the stock price. Can Rituxan sales high growth rate last many more years to come? Rituxan is for cancer treatment. You guys want to curse more people have cancer? Does cancer patients growth rate sustainable at this rate?
And no competion in the near,mid, or long range? I don't know about any competition in this field,can anybody reveal the information?
I dare no longs willing to talk about the long-term growth rate of Rituxan, and competion.
BTW, IDPH doesn't have the exclusive profit from Rituxan sales. It's shared profit.
Is 41% good enough for sustaining the valuation? I think some longs expected more on the growth rate." Right! How is that off label and European growth coming along?? Do these analysts have to keep increasing their forecasts and targets? And why do clinicians keep finding new diseases that Rituxan works to treat? what's THAT all about?
CSCO,MSFT,AMGN,INTC can't last for long on that kind of high growth rate" Yes! Never mind that sometimes we say this co. isn't like those big companies, now we try to compare them.. just get the point that this kind of growth % isn't sustainable, and hasn't been for 3 years, this Rituxan sales growth will slow on a % basis even if overall sales still increase by a larger amount of millions.!
fiber optical wonder land?" Of course! the economy is slowing, so folks will put off purchasing such luxuries as high speed networks, digital switches, and cancer medicine, until they can better afford them. Especially if they have stockpiled inventory!
All these long-term growth rate is just speculation and propaganda for institutions to manipulate the stock price." Exactly! the financial industry takes your money! always do the opposite of what they say and you can take money from them instead! it's all a giant conspiracy for the Man to screw the average Joe. L@@k back the past 100 years, the stock market has gone up thousands of %! It must go back down eventually and profitable, innovative, dominant companies are sure to lead the way! Overpriced!
Can Rituxan sales high growth rate last many more years to come? Rituxan is for cancer treatment. You guys want to curse more people have cancer? Does cancer patients growth rate sustainable at this rate?" Indeed! How many more patients worldwide can use Rituxan for specific cancer types like NHL, CLL, and other immune system diseases, and thereby improve their quality and duration of response with minor benign side effects? What is market penetrations so far? 30 or 40 %? It can only go as high as 100% and even then, NHL is only the 2nd fastest growing cancer population, not the first fastest.
competion?" You bet there is! Coulter sold themselves to CRXA not to bail themselves out after mismanaging the clinical biassed patient outcome evaluation and BLA filing of Bexxar, and not because the founders sold out and took the money and ran, and not because Bexxar won't even compete with Rituxan but instead with Zevalin, and that company CRXA continues to not have lots of integration and execution problems, so it is right behind IDEC in the radiolabeled segment!
BTW, IDPH doesn't have the exclusive profit from Rituxan sales. It's shared profit." To be sure! Genentech manufactures and helps sell Rituxan, at no expense to IDEC, just pure profits flowing into IDPH coffers! and the more the partnership sells, the higher the % that goes to IDEC! What's THAT all about??
I'm with the bargain hunter, this is some scary stuff!
Finally someone is with me! I am not the only one seeing the problem with IDPH's growth rate and valuation.
daveshadenuf knows more on IDPH company & its drug Rituxan/Zevalin than me. I would like to see if any longs *can* counter his points.
For me,I don't know the details about IDPH company and its drug. But I go with the *general idea* of the valuation and Wall Street scheme.
I mostly follow tech companies. But do I need to be an expert to understand all the techs of fiber optics,networking,semiconductors? No,I don't. Once you get the general idea and the way *stock up/down*,and institution plans, it's all similiar.
What would Warrant Buffet think about the valuation of IDPH? He is a true bargain hunting master.
Once again,I would like to say: Congratulation and good luck to longs if you have a handsome profit on IDPH stock.
As for my accumulated short position on IDPH,I am underwater now. But I will get my profit,just maybe longer time duration. And I am willing to wait for 4-6 months if needed. I am patient.
It's not a war between shorts and longs. Just a different way to trade stocks and make profit. IDPH is just a stock. Ever heard: Never fall in love with your stock?
I had a bad experience with one medical instrument stock: VISX. The LASIK laser eyes procedure company. Went through the cycle of: Analysts hype about the stock, target price, updrades, growth rate, exclusive leader(80% of market share), the huge size of the market, many more years to grow, ...
But after a little over 2 years,valuation,competition,lawsuit...brought its knees down from 100+ to teens. And believe or not the VISX officers,including CEO Mark Logan,sold most of their stock option near the high. Mark Logan stepped down not long ago. BTW,IDPH officers continue to sell their stock option recently. Saw a few again today. It was very similiar to VISX's story when it was at top.
It was a typical stock cycle. At one point of the *time frame*, something will bring down IDPH stock.
Don't tell me how great the management is,or how great the company is. We heard too much about the same kind of crap. All turn out to be ...
I like to learn more about the fundamental of IDPH's from long. Anyone want to share his/her infomation?