What is obvious is that no one is confident that the deals will get done, otherwise the stock price would be going up in anticipation of signed contracts, especially if they are only weeks away.
I agree others are not selling, but that's because there is no one to sell to.
The only positive is that IF the deals get done, the stock should see a healthy spike since there has been no runup leading into any potential news (actually price has been decreasing).
Also, with the results of the elections not in favor of Talabani and DF, it looks like they are over there now trying to secure the deals on the table before Allawi's party takes over and gives everything to SAK.
Saying that everything will be given to SAK is just plain dismissive...and I suspect you know that. Ringgold openly stated on those videos that DFSH has been a presence in Iraq longer than any other competitor; that there are very few if any, private brokers with the rights DFSH has secured; that there are none that are so positioned, trusted and that know almost all the members of Parliament in all parties.
To say that SAK is in a position to gain such access in such short order does not recognize Iraqi culture or the way diplomacy works in Iraq. To say that SAK will have access all markets is totally without substance and is complete conjecture. They may get some contracts but I believe it will pale in comparison to what DFSH will acquire and already have in the pipeline that took so many years to carefully construct.
Trust is eveything in Iraq and it takes years to build. DFSH has done that. SAK, in my own humble estimation, is just getting started. Having one's picture taken with Alarwi at a photo op is just that.
Trust is at the heart of this investment on bt sides of the equasion. If you are saying that Col. Ringgold can not be trusted from all that he says, then I would ask why you are still invested... with no disrespect intended.
This is a very unique investment with the potential for a sudden and dramatic move up with conclusive contract signings worth $ X.
The fact that there are what seem like interminable delays will affect the daily stock price and the confidence factor for many but the ultimate reward will lay in the forthcoming sign-offs. The risk is no contracts ever. Its your choice based on the cumulative concrete and circumstantial. the jury is still out. evidence
Maybe the word "everything" is a little strong, but they are in position to get the lion's share. Recipe - it doesn't seem like you have taken the time to research the comptetion. Here is a link to their website: http://www.sakcommodities.com/index.php/latests-news
They have beem in Iraq since 2005, same as DF. They have the first foreign owned office in downtown Baghdad. DF only has a room in the hotel.
Here are just a FEW recent accomplishments:
- They have been asked to form a JV by The Al-Mansour State Company for Construction for the purpose of bridging the gap in communications with foreign firms since Iraq has always been considered a difficult market for foreign companies to operate, and the regulations and logistic difficulties have been substantial barriers ...Isn't this the market DF is focused on as well? - They recently met with the Deputy Minister of Construction and Housing, Istabraq I. Alshouk to discuss foreign company participation in rebuilding Iraq. - Allawi met with them recently to discuss rebuilding Iraq (oh yeah you said that didn't matter!) - They were recently on Iraq televsion dicussing investment in Iraq. - They have already secured steel contracts - They have the capital to post the BONDS!!!
They seem to know anybody who is anybody over there. I don't know who the Col. knows, they have had no press in Iraq. Are you seeing the picture?
SAK also submitted proposals for sugar late last year and it does appear that DF was chosen over them at that time. Just need to make sure they can execute otherwise SAK will pick those up as well.
I don't want to just paint a doom and gloom picture here because Iraq is a big place and DF is very small do they don't really need many contracts to get going, especially if they can land the oil contracts, but IMO they NEED the sugar deals to stay afloat.