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THORNBURG MTG INC Message Board

  • pismire_03 pismire_03 Oct 23, 2005 11:35 PM Flag

    NorrisHappy-CC

    Just finished 83 min. on CC and did the guests have the questions...Education time for the analyst!

    I think most of the analyst are looking at all the mortgage companies and laying that on top of TMA, that is, from the questions asked TMA... down to the 2.9 yr swap rate to TMA's cost of funds and a 10% drop in value of homes in California. I think they should say "its a 30% drop from the 60% increase over 2.9 years, netting a 30% increase in home value".

    For those who give a hoot, take the time to tune into the CC it's only 83 minutes and you will learn a lot about the martgage business.

    Gota run,
    J.

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    • For those who give a hoot, take the time to tune into the CC it's only 83 minutes and you will learn a lot about the martgage business.


      Please excuse my ignorance, but what is the CC
      and where can I tune in.
      Thanks

    • Yes...Got a royal flush two times ago, my first ever.

      Why the drop in TMA? because I bought more shares today, before the drop. Just good timing.
      J.

    • dadnorris1@sbcglobal.net dadnorris1 Oct 25, 2005 4:12 PM Flag

      Sorry to take so long to get back to you. Busy as all heck.

      What a great call. You are correct the analysts are still trying to figure it out. This was an awesome performance from our management team.
      Also, they clearly formatted the comments to cover the needs of informed individual investors.

      All the good stuff has been batted about. It is interesting that although they are doing more hybrid fixed products the effective duration is still short due to symmetrical hedging. Clearly they have a proprietary advantage in their models the analysts are not clever enough to appreciate. Pride goes before the fall for the analysts.

      The one negative is the spreads the market offers on new product. I believe they said margins are in the 90 basis point range. While TMA should earn the dividend it is going to put pressure on the mortgage market and other players.

      Many MREITs are selling at deserved discounts to NAV. General market conditions; as far as pressure from rates, may get worse. Which means the discounts for many REITs may increase to fire sale levels in the future. Interesting possibilities made possible by stability of the business model.

      Hope you picked up some of those long calls when the stock was way down!

      Good Luck Longs

      • 1 Reply to dadnorris1
      • Yes, I didn't do the calls, tried but rejected in my IRA, only covered calls...So a bought some more anyway.

        I sold one REITS today and will be spreading its proceeds over two or three of my other REITS, TMA is one. The REITS I sold has some restatements for prior and had a low div., so got out.

        I believe TMA is going to be a winner long term and I will wait while getting a 11.5% yield at todays prices.

        The CC was great...so a few of the analysts just couldn't get it, they asked the same question over and over again.

        Switch back to Happynorris, I don't think you wish to get junk sent to you.

        J.

 

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