I expect the first wave of reality to hit the price
as heavy sellers use the natural higher volume of a
earnings report to dump their bags
The only saving grace might be if
TMA releases it AH so that today's option
expiration traps a few more retails
just my opinion of course
in case it helps you learn
NoW ranked 10th for month
It’s a good example you’ve posted before, and one I will ponder again, word for word. However, what has me distracted is the relationship between Warrants held in escrow and Capital Shares.
“This number is shown on a company's balance sheet under the heading Capital Stock and is more important than the authorized shares or float. It is used to calculate many metrics, including market capitalization and earnings per share (EPS).”
I would prefer all “shares” have a single definition, as inferred by your comments. It all seems designed to be vague and purposely confusing, probably by financial lawyers intent on deceiving the common stockholder. However, I accept “shares outstanding” has a different meaning than “shares authorized.” I will take time to explore this in other stocks starting with XOM where I am more familiar.
Meanwhile, we’ve beat this thread to death. See you tomorrow after church.
gaap dictates that earnings are quoted on a fully diluted basis. Doesn't matter if exercised. They are there. Recognize them. Embrace them.
You are a very smart man. If they were meaningless, why doesn't every company add warrants to their bond offerings? I assume you own your home. Pretend you issued warrants to buy shares equivalent to 95% of your home at a $100,000 strike price (i'm further assuming your home is worth far more). Would you sleep better at night knowing they weren't yet exercised, but could be anytime taking 95% ownership of your home away at 100K valuation? Or would it annoy and distress you that damn things exist, whether exercised or not? You know they will be exercised if you put your house on market or if you move and rent it out for the holders to capture their 95%. So long as you're just living there, no reason for them to exercise. But the minute cash will come from the house either from sale or rental, you know for sure you're diluted.
Same deal with tma. You should view tma warrants the same as my above example.
I admit being one of the least financially knowledgeable on this board. Just trying to understand the SEC Form SC 13D submitted today by Matlin.
db … Thanks’ for keeping me straight … I actually deleted the "s" on purpose when summarizing because it didn’t make sense. I see your point.
I might be all wet here, but I believe it makes a big difference whether the Warrants are exercised or held in escrow. TMA is not the only company holding shares in escrow. Someone please correct me if shares held in escrow are also included in Capital Shares outstanding.
poof … I do value your opinion above most.
Can you estimate how many Capital Shares outstanding are likely to be shown in the Q1 Earnings Report? If it is a number smaller than 3 billion, won’t that be very good news reflected in all the associated calculations? Smoke and mirrors, I agree.
ret, this may or may not help. but in one of your posts on this subject, in another thread, you misquoted the filing while making your point. I didn't bother to correct you. It was simply leaving an "s" off of some word, but it completely changed the understanding and meaning (for you) of what the warrant situation was, as if the warrants couldn't or wouldn't be exercised.
they can allow exercise of an amount up to 49% without shareholder vote. If i remember, the final terms were like 39.5% prior to vote. Plus, keep in mind, the 47M warrants given to the lenders.
Remove from your mind the difference between exercised and unexercised. They are out there. In any positive scenario they will come into play. In a negative scenario it is moot. Any sophisticated investor knows this. It is why it is "fully diluted eps".
Face facts. You are suffering 95% dilution. That must be a part of any cogent analysis on your part. Go find any reputable analyst, wsj, cnbc, etc which says there isn't 95% dilution. Are you of the opinion that you uniquely figured out everyone is wrong?
You slow? Ha! faster than most I think. My previous post was not very clear either. I was attempting to clear the word usage confusion and not put any great importance to the actual release. Poofs reply here should be heeded closely.
teflons point is "earnings release" will cause moaning. As far as the date. It has been asked by many. According to cycle should be in May for the 10Q. A 8k might precede that but with all they have been up to lately I don't expect anything soon. But I could be wrong.
Yes, I guess that’s what I am saying, but am willing to listen.
How do you read today’s SEC filing by Matlin?
1) Some of Matlin’s 1 cent Warrants are already exercised
(Obviously there was no “shareholder vote” required)
2) Matlin has other Warrants he will not be exercising (to your point)
You are saying there certainly will not be 95% dilution? That those sec filings were just a prank or something? TMA press release itself stated specifically current holders end up with 5%. Were they lying to you?
are you suggesting a negative shareholder vote? That would be far worse for common holders than 95% dilution. Do you understand the ramifications of it? Or didn't you read the section of the agreement surrounding the $200M?
Tef makes two predictions in one of his posts in this thread:
“ … come MOANday as TMA goes sub 35 cents imo on revelations in earnings report … “
1) TMA will issue its Earnings Report before Monday
2) Monday will see TMA below $0.35
Not to judge his credibility or intent, Tef never actually specified which Monday. I’ve held TMA for years and am patient enough to wait for Monday ... then many more years.
Sold Not … Lost Not
But you can't short TMA @ $1.13
Maybe @ $2.50 or $5.00
Don't take it all so personal. Teflon takes a lot of flak and is entitled to a little smack down. These others that invade threads with their vulgar hostilities that you ally yourself with. Doesn't make you look to good either. JMHO