I think the writing is in the wall that this drug already failed trial. Am I right or wrong?
It was at $7-$8 and then down to $6 when I said something is wrong, if trial is go the stock should head up even when no data is out because the people in those trials probably have some feeling as to how the drug would react to them.
How do one really tell if the drug is working for AD?
The FDA will probably require more data trials to continue on and on. It's very tough disease.
It's just tough. If data sucks, how low AXYX go down to? $1 buck or $2?
I predicted this will happen long ago when it was at about $7-$8 bucks. I was actually planning to buy some stock but then done some research.
I found out they will be announcing results within a few months but the stock price didn't go up prior which normally means data might be bad.
Besides, this Alzheimer disease is not easy to treat. It is similar to cancer and not many humans know what and why this condition happens yet in the brain. It will take many more years to find a cure.
ELAN did have a better drug but then problem was 6 people had imflammation so they cut that trial short. They do have a newer drug in phase I right now and results soon within the next 3-6 months. I don't know exactly when but if good data comes out, this could be the first drug making it to market.
I own ELN so I would like to see it work. Lucky, I didn't buy any AXYX. I also saw insiders were selling at $6 bucks. That is a bad sign as well. i DON'T KNOW HOW LOW THIS STOCK is going to go but $1 might be a good price to get in.
If they can reduce plagues in the brain, maybe they could still sell the drug to stop the progression of AD even more. The FDA could let this drug on the market also if it can do just that.
There might still be hope but it all depends on better data from trials. What do you think? If price is lower, risk is less.
Except when we're involved, I always root for the Bruins! I was a big Bruin fan growing up, especially in basketball. We won't talk about that one! Anyway you guys got us what....around eight years straight in football in the 90's...We have alot of catching up to do! Thanks again and Go LA!
Well said...and I agree with you, completely...even if you happen to be a Trojan and I happen to be a Bruin!
Best of luck to you, too. And, thank God that football season is over! (OK...congratulations on winning the national championship and adding mightily to the respectability of the PAC-10.)
I truly understand the point you are making.
On a risk spectrum longer term AXYX would obviously be in a far different category than PFE.
But if one is talking risk capital...from at least a short term potential with substantial returns longer term as well if trial results prove out...then AXYX could welll fit in very well. One could hardly argue that if Phase III results are good a double on this stock would not be out of the question...And if Phase IIb pans out...well we could see far greater returns. How many years until we see MRK trading back above 50 or PFE 40...? I presume at least two or more...? So if one can appreciate the risks then AXYX would appear to have a darn good risk to reward profile..!
Good luck and your point was of course well taken...
Add to previous post...
And, of course, a well diversified portfolio held over the course of time, further reduces exposure to risk and further converts what would otherwise constitute "speculation" into "investing." (Surely, you would agree that ownership of any single equity is more speculative than ownership of a well diversified portfolio, and that owning a well diversified portfolio for a period of years or decades is less speculative than owning the same portfolio for a year's time, or less.)
I completely concur with your prescription that ownership of high risk, highly speculative equities "...may well be a recommended part of any portfolio seeking growth," with the proviso that one is psycho-emotively prepared to assume high risk. (If I didn't, I'd have no personal interest in AXYX.)
IMO, however, your declaration that "you have to be pretty darn naive if you do not consider ANY investment in the stock market to be a 'speculation'" should be qualified by time horizon. If I were a trader rather than an investor, I'd agree with you. If I could only own PFE for a six-month period, I would consider such a position to be "highly speculative." If, however, I plan to hold PFE for a minimum of 10 years, I'd view my position quite differently. Does it mean that PFE is immune from catastrophic events? Certainly not. But I'd contend that I'd be justified in saying that PFE is positioned to endure any number of setbacks over the course of the ten years to come and still return a reasonable degree of profit. Can the same be said of AXYX? I think not.
No one here is arguing that this stock is not speculative. No one here is arguing that you should put all, or even a substantial portion or your investment capital, in a high risk speculation of any nature. This is a stock for risk capital only. It is a high risk high reward situation.
With that said, however, high risk speculations may well be be a recommended part of any portfolio seeking growth. Think of it as a pyramid. The bottom base (being the largest), is comprised of your "safest" investments and the very top triangle...the smallest part of the pyramid... is comprised of your highest risk investments.
As an observation though quimley...You have to be pretty darn naive if you do not consider ANY investment in the stock market to be a "speculation". With the largest drug companies in the world now selling at 40-50% off their 52 week highs, AXYX going to 2.50 after a completely failed Phase III trial from these current levels is percentage wise no worse of an event than BMY going from 52-24..PFE from 43-24...and MRK from 50-28.
The stock market is risky business...plain and simple.
Look at the company's income statement. There is absolutely zero reported income from operations over the course of the past three years.
I see nothing wrong with plunking down as much of your "play money" as you wish in this, or any other company. I'm simply opining that anyone for whom shares of AXYX constitute the single largest holding in a portfolio, is out of their mind. And, I'll say the same thing if we're fortunate enough to see shareprice soar to $25.