I have about give up on any long term plays on this mkt. I figure if you can find a stk that fluctuates 10% or more every mth. or so, you should be happy. But I noticed that PLD and the shipping stks would seem to go up and down together. Drys is the shipping stk that I play, if I decide to play a shipping stk... Most of the times when the chart readers, show a chart and talk about moving averages. Hell, I can't see what they are talking about. But I did just pull up and compared PLD and DRYS. I think the 5 yr and the 6 mth charts are informative. But if I am correct. We should see Drys correct up about 10% in the next couple of weeks. And PLD to correct down about the same amount....Good luck..
Let me start out with saying. I think that MM will have it back to $15. by Sept options expiration...When he does, I am going to load up on Jan + Mar calls... Now: They bought back $4bil worth of stk last yr. They only have 144mil shrs outstanding and the mkt cap is like $2.52bil at present. Now that is crazy in itself...Don't believe none of the figures that are showing as earnings. I think it shows they earned like $3.40 last yr. and they actually earned about $10. a shr. They have about the same amount forcast for this yr... In the last yr they have already paid off $1.2b of a $1.6B upgrade on power plants in MD...Just do the math. They emerged from BK 3 1/2 yrs ago. They have $1.91bil in cash. They have bought back $4bil in stk. and have spent $1.2bil on just that one project. They are making a lot of money that is not showing up in earnings report. They do have about $2.4b debt. I would assume that is about the same amount as when they emerged from BK. They also have about $3bil worth of tax credits...
I would be scared to death to jump in any of them right now. Yesterday I saw CIT jump about 15 cents (or over 15%.) in just a few minutes. I had 10k shrs that I bought at .45-.50 a couple of wks ago. I bought 100 Sept $1. calls and payed .50 for them. Now I have the equivalient of 20k shrs. I sold 100 Sept $2. calls for .20 this AM...This sounds like a lie. I got 42k shrs of Lehman Brothers. It tripled today. I have 301,100 shrs of Nortel. It went up up 87.5% today...I have one more BK stk. CEMJQ.pk...I bought 80k shrs of it a few mths ago at .05....I sold half of it at .10...And sold 15k more shrs at some price. But I got 5k shrs that are up to about .75 now....You may want to look at NT. Its still only .09....But just remember. You could have bought all you wanted 2 days ago for less than .05...I got about .055 in mine...But I won't be selling it at no .10....Which I will probably regret...Hey I have had a couple of great days. Don't think they can't take it back just as quike....Good luck...
Do you see the "big" correction coming that all the tv talking heads are talking about?
What do you think about C, AIG, CIT, FRE, FNM? I would think we will see big correction coming on them, however they just keep on moving up (that is until I take a long position and then it will fall like a rock).
I think SAY is very undervalued. It was moving up big time and then lost momentum. I think it should be in the teens. Not sure what is keeping it down. Have you looked or played this one?
Here is one of the craziest plays I have ever made. I absolutely believe MIR is the most undervalued stk on the mkt. But when you look at the options board and see all those calls. I think there is a good chance the MM will have it back to around $15. by options expiration. Last mth there was more puts than calls. About a wk before option expirations I bought 4k shrs with the belief he would drive it back up to 17.50 to knock out the puts. And he did. I usually keep a pretty big long position on MIR. I cashed everything and have now bought 20, $20. puts....I know what that MM can do. Qtr before last, I was sitting on over 600 calls. when they reported earnings. I went up over $100k in one day when they reported. Hell I was sure it would go up anouther $2. and I would make anouther $200.K....BS, by options expiration the following Fri. He drove it down $2. I did sell enough to make a little money. But got most of them stuck up my arse...But, I have become a big believer, in trying to figure out, where the MM can make the most money off those options. And there is really no way you can tell, exactly where he is positioned...Good luck///
You may be right, who knows for sure. I have learned not to sell my winning stocks and then buy a stock with a losing trend. If and when either or both stocks shift direction, is when I would consider buying the other.
Otherwise I am going to ride PLD on up to the teens.
I have come to the conclusion that the powers to be that drive these stks up and down. Just rape the options players every mth...Options expired last Fri. They closed it at $9.99. or right at $10. Thus making every $10. call and above worthless...Same with puts. $10. and below expired worthless. Right now, if you look at the options board. It still looks like $10. is the magic number. Right now if the stk were trading at $10, at expiration...It would make all but about 400 of those puts, and 1,000 or so of those calls worthless again. Just remember PLD closed 2 wks ago at $10.73...Just for them to snatch it back to $10. on options expiration....But there is really no way, , to know how the PTB have their money positioned. But I do like to study the options board and try to figure it out...I think I learned something on IBM last mth...If they are selling a lot of puts on a stk. for no reason other than people are betting it will drop. Don't you believe it. If they have the equity to sell all those puts. They have the money to drive it up and wipe them all out...I think TPB, sell all those puts. The calls are a different animal. Us, Joe six packs sell a lot of them agains our stk...So you can't really know, where they are on them. But getting back to DRYS...It looks like $6. is the magic nuber right now. But for some reason, when I was looking at it earlier, I was thinking they could drive it up to $7.50 and not be getting hurt. Don't pay me too much attention. Hell all those numbers could change dramatically in the next wk. Good luck...