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Anthera Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ANTH) Message Board

  • riskon4life riskon4life Nov 29, 2012 7:23 PM Flag

    Why ANTH is the Best Bet in Biotech Today

    To begin, on Anthera's recent earnings call, management clearly states that they have cash on hand for at least ONE YEAR and that they will not be considering additional funding until sometime in 3Q13. They also stated that future financing could very well be derived from partnership negotiations (ANTH has openly corroborated that they are actively communicating with multiple parties) as well as other forms of capital that may include some equity, debt, or a combination of all 3 of the above-mentioned options. Please keep in mind, if a partnership deal is announced, Anthera’s shares will undoubtedly skyrocket in my opinion, and since management is well aware of market dynamics, they will likely wait to deliver such news PRIOR to raising additional funds when needed. It’s clearly to their advantage to price a theoretical offering (Because, remember, they might not need one) at minimum, above the NASDAQs bid requirement of $1.00, which is also the PPS of the recent secondary.

    Nevertheless, at these ridiculous levels, Sabby, LLC, who just took a 5% or 4 million plus share stake in Anthera (As well as several other big players, like Opus Partners, for example) do not seem to share the hypothetical and unsubstantiated beliefs of a recent SA article by Prop Think that there’s a "capped upside" and capital raise concern. Quite frankly, neither do I. Respectfully, those remarks are purely speculative and unjustified. I encourage people to read the transcript that was so generously published on Seeking Alpha, which unmistakably articulates management's intentions. The transcript is one of the most positive things I have ever read.

    I have been studying Anthera for years now, and people are outright underestimating blisibimod's true market potential for a moderate to severe SLE population. Furthermore, B-Mod is proving to be a superior drug to HGSI/GSKs benlysta; because, among other things, B-Mod has met several important secondary endpoints and delivers essential ancillary benefits (Significant improvement in proteinuria over 24 weeks with the 200-milligram weekly dose, 1.6-fold improvement in the time to severe flare compared to placebo, 85% of the SRI-8 response was derived from clinical improvement such as improvements in joint pain, rash and oral lesions, etc.), many of which are being initiated in studies for future indications under their respective benefit profiles.

    Moreover, regarding regulatory developments, Anthera management had the following positive comments to say at their recent October, 2012 earnings conference call: “Regarding our interactions with the FDA in Q3, we discussed these data with the agency, and are pleased not only with the outcome but with the confidence we garnered from our discussion. The agency has confirmed that the primary endpoint of SRI-8, the value of it at a 52-week time point is acceptable for a registration studies. The SRI-8 is a defined -- is defined as patients who respond to treatment and achieve an improvement in the SELENA/SLEDAI index of equal to or greater than 8 points. No new BILAG A or BILAG B -- 2 BILAG B organ domain scores and no increase in Physician's Global Assessment of greater than 0.3 on a 3-point scale” (Seeking Alpha Anthera Transcript).

    And then we have Europe, which has also given Anthera's B-Mod the green light in implementing and following a relatively similar Phase 3 study acceptability protocol for an eventual MAA filing with the EMA. The catalysts in 2013 are many, and I am a true believer in blisibimod’s impressive potential and ultimate approval. Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) is an extremely difficult disease to treat, primarily, because of its obscure symptoms that vary in each patient; hence, making a definitive prognosis a formidable task for doctors and patients alike.

    With that said and to the contrary, Blisibimod is designed for a specific patient population, and as the 200 mg weekly cohort has shown, there is a very high treatment success rate. It seems Anthera has closed the gap and solved this “guessing” problem that has plagued benlysta (The only SLE drug approved in 50 years) in the past. This realization will lead to overall superior patient/doctor satisfaction in my opinion, thus, Anthera will not face the similar reputational damage that was/is evident in benlysta.

    I will stop here, but there are many additional reasons to consider a speculative, long position down at these “gifted” levels. Although the average medium term price target is around $3.00, I believe that ANTH is at minimum an $8.00 stock with approval of B-Mod, which would make it only the second approved treatment for Systemic Lupus Erythematosus in over 50 years. The bottom line: Patient investors can easily make 4X their investment, conservatively (If not 10X), by completing some due diligence and staying the course through final agency approval.

    Disclosure: I have a very large, long position in $ANTH. These are my opinions only, and not investment advice. Please seek advice from your investment advisor prior to placing a trade in this or any other security."

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • ALL IN, back to $10+

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Here is the biggest problem for longs- lupus has an enormously small patient population. The numbers that are consistently espoused by the lupus foundation of America have been exaggerated by a factor of 10. Benlysta adoption proves my previous statement. Antheras drug, IMO, has a target audience of less tan 40,000 americans. Whether, b-mod works better or not, simply does not matter....
      And hgsis sale price to Glaxo had absolutely nothing to do with Benlysta or lupus, so comparing anthera to hgsi is severely flawed. Just a one sentence explanation .... Hgsi had 2.4 billion in net operating losses(which Glaxo got to use against income), had 900 million in cash, and held rights to 20% of glaxos biggest potential drug in its pipeline(darapladib). Need I go on.
      I own anthera as a spec, in the hopes that they may land a partnership. Other than that, there is little value here....

      • 1 Reply to smelky_kid
      • Nice soft bash, if I've ever seen one. If you're long, you would know that all the smart money investor community (ie hedge funds) completely disagree with your subdued value outlook, otherwise why would they have recently taken up multi-million share (over 5%) positions in the company? They see huge value, that's why, and blisibimod, when approved, will be only the 2nd lupus treatment made available to patients in over half a century. How many kids suffer from DMD, as a percent of the population - not many - but SRPT trades in the high 20's. Lupus is a huge problem worldwide and a terrible disease, especially in the moderate to severe population. The fact that ANTH has a better treatment, will allow them to charge more for the drug. There are no other treatments for moderate to severe SLE on the market. Upon approval, the company is worth at least $5 to $8 imo, which discounts any of your hypothetical concerns regarding HGSI. In the mean time, at under one dollar, shares are extremely cheap and based simply on risk/reward, should be bought. My opinions, but the way I see it, your theory is ultimately the one that's flawed.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Great and informative post. After Gale takes off I will get into ANTH. Thank you.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Don't waste your time on bio-pharma. He's a paid rube with nothing worth reading to say. He posts under several names and adds nothing. Put the dimwit on ignore. Why do you think he's here day and night posting on a stock he doesn't own? He's a joke.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • 12 months cash is NOT a comfort level. True, The science is much better than HGSI but some here are really stupid to believe they go OTC because of a convenient situation. There are very important reasons to maintain NASDAQ listing. It's not " All About The Science" there are plenty of small biotech failures with great science. This company is a one trick pony on a merry-go-round. Take off the rose colored glasses because this IS NOT the best bet in biotech. Good luck, you will need it.

      I will only buy after the RS and shelf exercise. I am fully aware how Chris Henney manages struggling Biotechs. Might want to do a little dd and get ready for the notification, it's reality.

      • 2 Replies to checkcrookcharlie
      • Oh, one more thing. You say "True, The science is much better than HGSI." Your words, not mine.

        Well then, since HGSI got taken out aggressively by GSK at $14.25 per share, it's safe to assume that Anthera, conservatively, should be worth at least half that. What is that -- like 1000% from here? Not a bad investment, if you ask me.

        Additionally, it doesn't really matter what happens between now and then, because according to you, the science is better and since benlysta, by your own admission, is an inferior drug and still managed to garner worldwide approval, blisibimod should have no problem getting approved; especially, since the FDA and EMA now have a comparative (Which was actually part of the P-3 protocol assessment and vetting procedure) that will allow them to see B-Mod's clear superiority and well valued ancillary benefits.

        Bash all you want – you’re a rube - because that's all you duds know how to do. You talk in circles, speak half-truths, and use scare tactics to try to get people to sell their shares. People are smarter than that and will invest the way they feel best suits their risk tolerance. They do not need you – the rube – to save them from themselves. If you're not long, nor short, then get lost and come back when you have something valuable to share with the rest of us.

        GLTA Longs

        Riskon4life

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Then short the stock and go away. I guess all those stupid big money players that are loading up on ANTHs shares are just not as smart as you, ah?

        This is the same garbage and hyperbole that was present on the ARNA board for 2 years; "One trick pony, insufficient cash, delisting, lack of efficacy, blah, blah, blah." Fools like you bashed the stock all the way from $1.30 to $13. LOL. Same with HGSI, ACAD, ITMN, SRPT, and many other biotech co's that have produced gains of 300-1000% in my portfolio.

        Say and do what you want; I'm successful, because I don't listen to rubes.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Keep in mind: 7/19/12 was the recent offering of 33 mil shares at $1.00. Institutional buyers that initiated huge stakes in Anthera Pharma at the $1.00 mark will make 1000% sure it gets back - at min - to their initial investment entry price.

      These institutional buyers include the following: RA Capital with 4.5 mil shares, Tang Capital with 5.5 mil shares, Pro Quest with 4.5 mil shares, Deerfield, etc. All of the above-mentioned companies' 13-G filings are dated 7/19/12, which clearly corresponds to the supplemental prospectus filing date (7/19/12) for the stated 33 mil share offering.

      Additionally, on 11/15/12, Sabby's Master Fund took a 4 mil share stake in ANTH, and on 8/17, Opus Point Partners also purchased 4.2 mil shares. I clearly expect more 13-G filings to surface in the coming weeks, with value players entering at these unjustified, depressed levels. Moreover, upon the tail-end of accumulation , which is right around the corner in my opinion, we should see a steady move back above the $1.00 mark.

      As I stated in my recently, do you really think that ALL of the aforementioned big money investors are planning on losing 35% on their Anthera investment (Based on today's PPS of $0.65. Let me quickly answer that for you -- not a chance. These guys are in the business of making money -- period, and you will likely see a coordinated effort to move the stock back to equilibrium. Don't believe me? Look at PPHM as of late -- a double on no news.

      All recent news - following Anthera's offering on 7/19/12 - has been 100% positive. Read my initial, detailed post above for a clear explanation. In my opinion, and it's not really rocket science, there's a huge imbalance in current assigned value that will inevitably swing share price back to reality. Dr. McDonald with Life Sci Advisors, who is an extremely reputable biotech analyst, PhD, etc., with a stellar resume and impeccable credentials, also seems to agree with me.

      Don't believe these amateur cynics on this or any other board. They are spreading false rumors based on unsubstantiated information. These are typical scare tactics, hyperbole, and baseless garbage, so my advice is to put these rubes on ignore and complete your own due diligence. In this business we establish a thesis based on factual information that is available to us at that time. Upon the formulation of a thesis, we execute our plan and stick with the facts until something materially changes. Nothing has changed with Anthera Pharmaceuticals and the incredible prospects surrounding blisibimod; actually, the data and company's position is stronger and more positive today than in recent months. That's exactly why institutions are taking large, 5% plus stakes in the company at these undervalued levels.

      As I said: Complete your own due diligence and don't fall pray to uneducated day traders with a sole purpose in life to scare investors into selling their shares.

      Good luck to all longs!

      Disclosure: I am long $ANTH

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Best post on the board thus far regarding ANTH. Excellent read!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Most comprehensive analysis I have ever read on this or any other board. Hall of fame and thumbs up. Thanks for posting!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
ANTH
5.20+0.31(+6.34%)Apr 24 4:00 PMEDT