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Anthera Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ANTH) Message Board

  • riskon4life riskon4life Nov 30, 2012 8:37 PM Flag

    ANTHs Institutional Buyers - Following the Money

    Keep the following in mind: There was a recent equity offering on 7/19/12 of 33 mil shares and at the listed offer price of $1.00. Piper Jaffray was the lead manager on the deal and Canacord Genuity the co-manager. Accordingly, and as verified through subsequent 13-G SEC filings, numerous institutional buyers participated in the offering and initiated significant equity stakes in Anthera Pharmaceuticals at the aforementioned $1.00 offer price.

    These institutional buyers include the following: RA Capital Management, LLC with 4.5 mil shares (6.1% stake), Tang Capital, LP with 5.5 mil shares (7.4% stake), Pro Quest Investments, LP with 4.5 mil shares (5.7% stake). All of the above-mentioned companies' 13-G filings are dated 7/19/12, which clearly corresponds to the supplemental prospectus filing date (7/19/12) for the stated 33 mil share offering.

    Additionally, on 11/15/12, Sabby Healthcare Volatility Master Fund acquired a 4 mil share stake in Anthera and on 8/17/12, Opus Point Partners, LLC also purchased 4.2 mil shares. Moreover, I expect more 13-G filings to surface in the coming weeks, as value players take positions in ticker symbol ANTH at these unwarranted, depressed levels. Lastly, my intuition tells me that we are on the tail end of an accumulation cycle, and we should see a steady move in shares back above the secondary price of $1.00.

    Here’s a question for the cynics: Do you really believe that any of the aforementioned big money influential players are planning or willing to lose investment capital on their Anthera outlay, just a few short months after the initiation of their positions? Let me quickly answer that question for you -- fat chance. These organizations are in the business of making money – period -that’s how they survive, and you will likely see a coordinated effort that moves the stock back to equilibrium sooner than most think.

    Don't believe me? Take a look at the move in Peregrine Pharmaceuticals ($PPHM) as of late. After tanking on news that previous positive trial results for its NSCLC drug Bavituxamab were not to be trusted due to a 3rd party coding debacle, the stock traded down from approximately $5 to a low of $.60. Pessimism rose steeply, as investors were overwhelmed by editorialists and online bloggers who relentlessly bashed the stock, telling investors to “sell into strength” and calling for a $.30 price target. They also swore that the company would suffer a cash drought and an eventual delisting from the NASDAQ Marketplace was inevitable. Shares hovered around $.60 and Peregrine eventually received a notice of non-compliance from the NASDAQ for not maintaining a minimum bid price of $1.00 for 30 consecutive days. Here’s the kicker: Just days after the notice was filed, and contrary to the cynic’s seemingly self-promoting agenda, the stock reversed course and following a swift and steady move upward, it is now trading at $1.50; that’s an almost 100% gain. The lesson: Don’t believe everything you read, because more times than not, the people that are sharing their opinion publicly have their own agenda.

    As far as Anthera goes, all recent news following Anthera's offering on 7/19/12 has been nothing short of positive. In my opinion, and it's not rocket science, there's a huge imbalance in current assigned value that will inevitably swing ANTHs share price back to fair value – a lot higher from here.

    To conclude, and to follow up on a previous point, you should always complete your own due diligence and make decisions based on your own research. There will always be individuals who shamelessly spread false rumors and some that publish their opinions based on unsubstantiated information. As investors, we need to establish a thesis based on factual information that is available to us during our due diligence period. Upon the formulation of that thesis, we execute our plan and stick with the facts until something materially changes. I speak with confidence when I say that nothing has changed with Anthera Pharmaceuticals, its clear path towards approval by the FDA and EMA, and the outstanding prospects surrounding blisibimod. In reality, the statistics and company's position is far stronger and much more encouraging today than any time in recent history. They have a drug that clearly works on a predefined SLE population and can be expanded for treatment in alternate indications. That's exactly why institutions are taking large, 5% plus stakes in the company at these undervalued levels.

    Disclosure: I am long $ANTH. Please complete your own due diligence. This is not investment advice. Please seek the advice of your own financial advisor prior to buying or selling any security.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Dude you wasted a lot of time with your thesis on ANTH ! ! Secondary offering announced and PPS down .05 AH.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • should move to $4-5 range with partnership, taking out delisting and R/S fears, JMHO.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • you still holding?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to bullcoach_1
      • Bullcoach-1 -

        If your question was directed to me, of course -- I am still holding a very large, long position and will do so through b-mod's approval. Separately, I just closed my entire PPHM position today for a huge gain. I might buy it back if it falls to $1.88. The same incessant bashing was being exploited in PPHM, and those that sold, simply because they listened to rubes instead of following their own thesis, missed out on 300% -400% gains off the 0.60c bottom. My point: As I said before, do your own research and forget the noise that inevitably surrounds us, especially when the PPS is not ideally where we want it in the short term. It's our longer term objectives that we truly care about. These people have nothing better to do but trash talk these biotechs, as to intentionally spread FUD and profit through their coordinated bear raids and subsequent panic selling. Cool heads prevail -- ALWAYS. Don't ever forget that.

        Good luck to all.

        Riskon4life

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Below is a list of institutional ownership, which is approximately 68% as 12/9/12. Thought it might be of value on this thread.

      Institution - Total Shares - $ Value - Holding % - Shares Outstanding %
      Tang Capital 5.5M $5,435,093 +9% 6.9%
      VantagePoint 5.3M $5,711,623 +9% 6.8%
      ProQuest 4.5M $4,815,000 +8% 5.7%
      Opus Point 4.2M $3,837,151 +7% 5.3%
      Sabby 4.0M $2,420,260 +7% 5.1%
      Sofinnova 4.0M $4,277,007 +7% 5.1%
      Abingworth 3.5M $3,482,932 +6% 4.4%
      Franklin 3.3M $3,313,101 +6% 4.2%
      Camber Cap 3.1M $3,081,400 +5% 3.9%
      Baker Bros 2.9M $2,930,649 +5% 3.7%

      Franklin 1.8M $1,789,896 +3% 2.3%
      Franklin 1.2M $1,283,251 +2% 1.5%
      Vanguard Total 734.1K $729,698 +1% 0.9%
      FCP OP Medical 498.0K $532,860 +1% 0.6%
      Fidelity Health 263.2K $1,255,464 0% 0.3%
      Vanguard 172.0K $171,000 0% 0.2%
      Vanguard 166.2K $165,210 0% 0.2%
      Putnam Global 136.8K $121,927 0% 0.2%
      Fidelity Spartan 123.2K $109,727 0% 0.2%
      TFS Market 120.3K $128,762 0% 0.2%

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to duediligencerules
      • From fidelity website, it shows 43% inst. ownership.
        Idk how you arrived at 68%.
        Tang Capital Management, LLC 09/30/12 5.5M $3.8M 6.91%
        Abingworth, LLP 09/30/12 3.5M $2.4M 4.43%
        FRANKLIN RESOURCES, INC 09/30/12 3.3M $2.3M 4.21%
        Camber Capital Management, LLC 09/30/12 3.1M $2.1M 3.92%
        BAKER BROTHERS ADVISORS, LLC 09/30/12 2.9M $2.0M 3.73%
        RA Capital Management, LLC 09/30/12 2.9M $2.0M 3.72%
        PERCEPTIVE ADVISORS LLC 09/30/12 2.6M $1.8M 3.24%
        DEERFIELD MANAGEMENT 09/30/12 2.3M $1.6M 2.91%
        Redmile Group, LLC 09/30/12 1.8M $1.2M 2.21%
        Bailard, Inc. 09/30/12 1.6M $1.1M 2.05%

        And mutual funds
        FRANKLIN STRATEGIC SERIES-FRANKLIN BIOTECHNOLOGY DISCOVE (i) 09/30/12 1.8M $1.2M 2.28%
        VANGUARD TOTAL STOCK MARKET INDEX FUND (i) 09/30/12 734.1K $506.5K 0.93%
        VANGUARD INSTITUTIONAL INDEX-INST TOTAL STOCK MARKET IND (i) 09/30/12 172.0K $118.7K 0.22%
        VANGUARD EXTENDED MARKET INDEX FUND (i) 09/30/12 166.2K $114.7K 0.21%
        Putnam Global Health Care Fd (i) 08/31/12 136.8K $94.4K 0.17%
        SPARTAN EXTENDED MARKET INDEX FUND (i) 11/30/12 123.2K $85.0K 0.16%
        TFS CAPITAL INVESTMENT TR-TFS MARKET NEUTRAL FUND (i) 07/31/12 120.3K $83.0K 0.15%
        ISHARES Russell Micro Cap (TM) Index Fund (i) 12/31/12 93.7K $64.6K 0.12%
        SPARTAN TOTAL MARKET INDEX FUND (i) 11/30/12 45.2K $31.2K 0.06%
        PUTNAM VARIABLE TRUST-GLOBAL HEALTH CARE FUND (i) 09/30/12 14.5K $10.0K 0.02%

      • ultra_rapid_acting_insulin ultra_rapid_acting_insulin Dec 13, 2012 12:35 PM Flag

        Thanks for the detailed info. Very cool of you to post it. Assuming the lower portion of the list are mutual funds? Nice to see large interest in the company. Cheers and happy holidays to all!

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Bump.......very nice post with a strong, long argument that makes perfect sense

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • joellehernandez@rocketmail.com joellehernandez Dec 6, 2012 1:12 AM Flag

      i agree tell what you think of sons go look at the insider buying on sons thank's long also anth!!!!!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Truly one of the better analysis on Anthera pharmaceuticals. I wholeheartedly agree that these hedge funds will not lose any money. Why would they buy millions of shares if they didn't think this was a solid company and a sound investment? Why over-think it. We go higher from here in my humble opinion

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Correction: "the stock reversed course and following a swift and steady move upward, it is now trading at $1.50; that’s an almost 100% gain.'

      Should read: "the stock reversed course and following a swift and steady move upward, it is now trading at $1.50; that’s over a 100% gain."

      Good luck to everyone!

      Riskon4life

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to riskon4life
      • You are 100% correct. I was in that PPHM trade as well and doubled my money in a very short period. I will buy back-in after the upcoming CC. I actually see ANTH as a far safer play at this point. Why? Because ANTH dropped for no reason other than fiscal cliff/market conditions. PPHM did not (fell because of faulty data) and still managed to double off the lows. As with many other pharma stocks ANTH just hasn't recovered yet, besides all the great news. I completely agree with u that it will start to move shortly. It;s just too cheap down here. As with PPHM, a light bulb will just go on one day and it will fly. Thx for the post. Very well written!

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
ANTH
4.74-0.01(-0.21%)May 22 4:00 PMEDT