Reasonable strategy - I disagree on the Takeda bit though. What they gave AMLN was not a huge deal ($75M) and is really just VC to go after the hormone based (cellular level) weight loss.
I don't think Takeda was just shopping for some weight loss - more of a collaboration fit.
They did get funds up front which is saying something about the confidence in AMLN and credible R&D.
ARNA's contingency deal with JNJ would net four times that amount - but no money up front. If ARNA can get lorcaserin approved, they will then have similar status and most likely a far better deal in place.
Cowen don't know diddly.
They had their dog and poney show this morning and I bet they ran to the phones to put in some more short orders.
I bet the stock goes down to $1.98 and then in October if they get approved it goes up back up to $3.
ARENA = DEAD MONEY for the next seven months.
Hopefully that is happening to some extent. I do know that raising a little extra cash helps the negotiating position and they've had Phase III data long enough to be very deep in discussions.
Too bad we can't place bets!
I'd go Takeda to win
GSK to place\
JNJ to show
and of course I'd put $7 on the tri-fecta
agree that Lorcaserin could leverage Orlistat to log5 higher sales
anyway master list is any pharma with a sales force and cash monies.
1st half 2010 has been the target for some time. In order to launch in Q1 of 2011, they would need to have a partnership done by the summer to allow time for sales & marketing purposes. I'm gambling on a bunch of July $4 and $5 calls with the hope of them meeting that goal.
So funny that VVUS is saying partnership after PDUFA date now. That just confirms that partners aren't really interested in them.