CNBC Fast Money is reporting that the CV Adcomm will have a major impact on VVUS PPS. They are also reporting that this view is supported by very high VVUS April premiums.
VVUS is down another leg in after hours trading.
Question for the board:
If VVUS heads down on Adcom news, how will this impact ARNA.
Remember, the perception IS the reality
I think ARNA trades up to $5-6 going into ADCOM and I believe the days prior to ADCOM will be highly volatile which everyone hedging their bets (I doubt many hold all their position going into ADCOM). Look for a nice run up again, but a sell off just prior.
As for the CV ADCOM, I feel a lot of the discussion was positive to ARNA's favor and potentially negative to VVUS (see VVUS AH shares sinking). I do believe the cardio trials will be required, but post-approval. I really can't see FDA dragging them around again.
ARNA is safe either way as they already have plenty of cardio safety data.
Thanks for the feedback.
I think I know what ARANA SHOULD do based on the FACTS-no impact, ARNA CV studies complete with no issues
However since the media, and probably most investors, apparently do not know the facts, I was interested in what board members thought WOULD ACTUALLY happen.
My thinking is that there will be misleading and negative articles (no matter what the Adcom results) and selling pressure driving ARNA down to perhaps $2.30 - 2.40
May be the best last chance to buy more
Just ask yourself.....do I really believe that Arena will be at $2.80 a share on May 9th, the day before the advisory meeting, knowing that if its approved , it will trade at $8.00. People don't react that way. Look at the Powerball at 500 million. People have a 1 in 172 million chance and they are taking a chance. The odds are 50/50 for approval. I bet that we will be at $5.00 a share on May 9th
it is so hard to tell - it could move in sympathy if the AdCom seems to go badly for the sector, or it could go well for Arena is the sentiment looks advantageous for us - ie no heart risk and good enough efficacy, great studies, etc. I'm optimistic.
VVUS's chances of significant CV attachments went up today.
Arena has a safer cardiac profile and has been studied closely already, I think Lorqess is in a better position to avoid further CV delays.