Big Money wants the price low to steal shares, cover shorts last minute and buy up as many retail shares as possible.
Big Money knows the fix is in and this thing will not pass.
My question is, why would they not have run it up well beyond 3.45 if they wanted to make the most possible out of shorting it? Either they don't have as much foresight and control as we think, they didn't want to make as much money off of this as possible, or they are expecting it to get approved and will be jumping on the bandwagon in the week before the ADCOM.
Which of these scenarios seems most likely to you?
I don't think it is evident yet, but I do believe everyone is scrambling to read and understand the tea leaves. I don't think the manipulation of PPS belongs to any big player anymore - control hinges on the panel now and how it's perceived. Everyone will be playing to that tune from here on out to May 11.
On a political scale, I see this thing as leaning more in strong favor now, whereas I believed there was just a slight bias in favor at 50/50 only yesterday. Dr. B cannot be a plant - so blatantly slapping ARNA in the face.
The key now is how the Arena team reacts; if they show signs of dismay, then I will as well, but they remain sanguine over Dr. B, so will I.
Folks will begin to draw lines on the analytic scales of personalities and perceived psychology of the FDA. I am having a hard time visualizing a rejection.
In your experience how many times has wall street raided retail by dropping a stock right before good news popped the pps? Also how many times has wall street pumped a company's stock before delivering bad news and crushing retail?
You most likely answered your own question in both the last segment as well as your 1st choice. Still many will get this wrong.
I still say they are getting cheap shares. If hedgies know the fix is in now, then surely they also knew in 2010 , yet they ran it up to 8 before vote and of course were shorting the crap out of it before it tanked to 1. as price action is complete oppoiste to 2010, i would say they know the fix is not in this time and in fact feel good about it and why they are driving it down to get cheap shares before letting this run.