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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • pepperdog_0005 pepperdog_0005 May 3, 2012 11:35 AM Flag

    May 10th is not a binary event

    I'm long on arna and have to say that the much anticipated AdCom will have significant impact on the pps. However, some of these comments here that "we will go to $10 if we get approval in the AdCom" are foolish. The pps will vary in direct relation to the level of confidence we go into the PDUFA - THAT'S THE BYNARY EVENT. I believe it's extremely rare that the FDA would reject a drug that gets a 15-0 or 14-1 vote in the AdCom. If that happens, the price will go up well over $10. Conversely, an 8-7 vote would leave a lot of uncertainty and would be enough to impact the pps negatively. So, much depends on the actual vote and how the market sees it going into the PDUFA on June 27.

    Still accumulating on weakness - have not sold a single share since early 2010.

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    • How do you explain vvus from 9 to 24 bucks on adcom pos vote?
      Guess your point is pointless after all.

    • but you are completely wrong.

      The next day on May 11, ARNA's either going to be in toilet around $1 or $10+ depending on whether it's 'yes' or 'no'

    • yeah these pumpers are funny.

      lol @ $10 after adcom.

      these dingleberrys forget arna was $7.5 pre fda, and that was with LESS SHARES.

      not a snow balls chance in hell we top $7. before FDA.

      if we get anywhere near $7 after adcom, i'm selling my house and shorting the beegebers out of this.

    • I agree with your basic point--the price response on the 10th will depend on how positive or negative the vote is. However, I think that a close vote might actually be positive for the stock price. Away from this message board, sentiment is overwhelmingly negative (because of the very real remaining concerns about tumors and heart effects, to which this message board just seem completely blind). In view of the negative sentiment and sky-high short interest, a close vote might boost the stock price a little.

    • Actually there are no binary events in the investing world as long as there are multiple interests in hoping the price go up and hoping that price will go down. Even with approval there will be people shorting the stock (albeit at a higher level) but that moderates the PPS response. An investor has to take a long term strategy...either stay for the long trend, or continue to play the volatility in the short term from day to day.

      I'm in the former category, not only for Lorcaserin, but for the pipeline in Arena awaiting approval of its first drug candidate. Once that happens, watch their new drug submissions and clinical trials for chronic diseases of all kind. Maybe the first will be again for lorcaserin, but this time for tobacco addiction.

      • 1 Reply to budtuba
      • Disagree

        Black Swan Theory Event:
        Come May 11th it will be clear why the PPS is much higher.

        1) massive blind short interests
        2) massive demand for short supply stock

        Shorts tend to be able to wheasel out of squeezes ,but the short position is over done here and the PPS has been kept at bay for too long. Positive Ad Com when the price hits the threshold for funds to buyin they'll take it as a speculative play for the PDUFA date.

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