If we conservatively assume that 100mil people (and this is possibly a low estimate, I would not be suprised this is going to be taken also by not obese people, think of Viagra for instance) in the world will be prescribed a long term therapy consisting of 1 pill a day at a price of USD 1, and considering that Arna will be possibly the monopolist in the market, we might be talking about a potential revenue of USD 36B revenue per year, which would mean for Arna a market cap of USD 100B (normally Pharma capitalize 3 to 5 timed their annual sales), which is USD 500 a share. Am i missing anything here?
That means, by my most conservative calculations, that if only 8 billion people all took Lorc twice a day(8,000,000,000*365*2=5,840,000,000,000), at $27USD a pill (5,840,000,000,000*27=157,680,000,000,000/yr) divided by Arena's 33% take (157,680,000,000,000*0.33=52,034,400,000,000/yr), and calculate the present value of the next five years of sales, assuming sales are flat, ([52,034,400,000,000/[1.08]]+[52,034,400,000,000/[1.08^2]]+[52,034,400,000,000/[1.08^3]]+[52,034,400,000,000/[1.08^4]]+[52,034,400,000,000/[1.08^5]]+[52,034,400,000,000/[1.08^5]]=243,172,009,469,055.64). Or $243 Trillion USD. Feel free to correct me if any of my numbers are off.
that is nice and in fact it is not very far from my estimates for US, except that I believe Michael's estimates for sales outside US are way underestimated (below US estimates). Only Europe has more obese people than US, also I do not believe the potential market here is only with obese people. maybe also overweight people will want to take a shortcut or anyway a help to weight loss.
WOW!!!! We went from 20 to 50 to 100 and now $1000 stock. Come on people. I'm holding and hoping like the rest of you, but claims like this make you look retarded.
All these numbers on obesity you throw at us is great but the keys to success of this drug is first approval and then acceptance. Doctors have to like the drug, have to feel that it is helping their patients, and patients have to comply w/ taking the medication and afford the medication.
A likely break down of our society will find a larger percentage of our obese population is likely the poorer percentage of our population due to lack of education, laziness, cultural foods, and lack of income to afford healthier alternatives (sorry they don't buy Amy's All Natural Frozen Pizza in the SouthSide of Chicago). What makes you think this large obese subset will: 1. go to the doctor, 2. afford the medication, and 3. remember to take the medication?