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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • vs1234gs vs1234gs Jun 22, 2012 1:53 PM Flag

    Buy Put as many as you can.

    Possible CRL reason:
    3 out of 4 Tox/ Pathlogist voted No to approval (main reason for last CRL and reason they were included this time) I posted same yesterday but some how Bulll able to get remove my post.

    In FDA Minutes:
    Section 1B: The committee agreed that additional studies are necessary to define a potentially vulnerable
    population who may be more likely to develop these types of tumor when taking. Question is before or after. As per Tox/Pathologist vote it has to be before.

    Section 5A : Vote result: 18 -4 -1
    Many panel members indicated that it was a very difficult vote
    and they reluctantly voted “Yes” that the benefits outweigh the risk for treatment of
    obesity patients since the magnitude of weight loss was moderate. Clearly not all 18 clearly onboard. They Voted yes before Obesity need option, There are other more effective option which FDA would give more weight. (VVUS)

    Read your self.

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Main risk of buying put is if FDA postpone decision. If you want to get safety buy call well into out of money. I added more to my $17 call short (Risky but I don't see this go above 17 even if approved. ($17 mean $3+B cap) so I will be close to break even even if approved (And price remain below 17) or get postpone.

    • Remeber CRL will likely mean <$3.

    • Yes, a warning label is for sure. On paper the vote looked convincing, but the small print was warning of all sorts of bumps. Which is why I didn't have guts to buy in May. But I am buying a few puts if it's miraculously pumped to $14 before 06/27.

      Even with approval, post-studies are definitely going to be required, ECG, training, etc. Long road to market, personally I would NEVER take lorcaserin myself because I'm scared of cancer warnings. So if it jumps to some ridiculous pps on approval, like >$16, that'd be a great opportunity to short.

      • 1 Reply to iv_z28
      • Agree but remember between 2010 and 2012 they issue millions of share. at $11, they worth $2B. Even if Approve not much high it go. Drug launch are slow Only reason I don't short is market is crazy. ( I did short small number of 17 call as I feel comfortable and ready to take small loss in any event but I don't recomend to anyone else.)

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