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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

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  • staccani staccani Jul 5, 2012 5:09 PM Flag

    Here's why we are going up.

    let me elaborate a bit on my assumptions: 30% (higher as sales grow)on US sales means roughly 10 % profit on US sales, as mfg costs of pills are negligible compared to their forecasted sales prices. If we assume 5 mill US patients at USD 1,500 p.a. each that is 7.5B USD revenue in the US at 10% profit for Arna, this is 10 B USD market cap only for US at a P/E of 13.
    Then there is the ROW. If we conservatively assume 10 mill patients that is 15 B USD rev a year. Possibly 35% of it is net profit, ie 5.2B USD a year + US profits then we have ca 6 USB profit a year, which at a PE of 13 ca USD 80B, which is 40 times current market cap, ie would translate in almost USD 500 a share. And all this would be achieved with only 1% market penetration (ie very conservative).
    Let us assume a best case scenario of 5% market penetration and try to calculate what would be the PPS ;-)

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