Putting together plans now for a Sept/Oct opening. We'll be starting small but with grand plans. As a teaser for you longs, here are a few numbers. We plan on conservatively starting an average of 2 patients per day or 500 annual run rate-though we do expect healthy ramp up. Lets say half of those initial numbers stay on Belviq or 250.
Assuming $2000 Belviq sales per patient per year with about $500 of that going to Arena, you would need about 1 million patients to get to first year revs of $500 million. Using my estimates of 250 patients then would require merely 4000 MDs across America to duplicate my estimates and meet $500 million(4000x250x$500). Not bad huh? But it gets much, much better.
First is that this will be a part time gig for me and my Nurse Practioner(NP) wife. I can focus very little time because Belviq is so safe. Other docs focusing on Belviq will undoubtedly hand Belviq out like candy and so their numbers should handily surpass our numbers, again, which I expect to escalate.
4000 MDs? There are over 200,000 primary care MDs in the US. Every one of whom deals with large numbers of obesity, weight issues and comorbidities(diabetes&metabolic syndrome anyone?). And Eisai will be initially targeting some 25-30,000 NON-primary care specialty MDs who will also become the thought leaders on Belviq. Then there are all the states where NPs can practice independently of MDs/DOs. They too, will definitely want the safer, less onerous Belviq. So the numbers for Belviq are near mind numbing, not unlike Q's side effects. We also will not prescribe Q, not once! Not because Q isn't a good alternative for refractory obesity; it is. But we just don't want the hassle of all the REMS, monitoring etc etc.
BTW, I am a trained in a surgical specialty, neither primary care nor a metabolic specialist that Eisai will be targeting. Wife(NP) trained in family practice. Belviq is going to be HUGE(pun) for my family, Areniacs, and (GodBless)America.