3 Trillion USD potential market. Let us buy both ARNA and VVUS
So if we assume 2,000 USD per year per 1.5Billion obese + overweight people in thw world, that is 3 Trillion USD potential market. VVUS and ARNA combined will get 'only' 5% market penetration within a few years? Fine, that is USD 150 Billion revenue a year, which looking at peer's multiples means a combined market cap of ca USD500 Billion. At the moment the combined market cap of the two companies is less than USD 5 Billion. So with 5% market penetration we could invest 1 USD today and have maybe USD 500 in a few years. So why keeping arguing which drug is best, let us just invest in both, one of them at least, if not both, will succeed, and the investors hugely rewarded.