Sat, Aug 30, 2014, 7:14 PM EDT - U.S. Markets closed


% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • johnnyola_1 johnnyola_1 Aug 30, 2012 2:11 PM Flag

    Statistical facts about Belviq:

    if 3 prescriptions per primary doctor (in 2009 there was 352 k primary docs in america),

    our price goes to $30 if 10 times earnings.

    1 million rx's
    x 547 (arnas take per rx per year)($4 wholesale per day,*.375*365)
    = 547 million income.

    current market cap = 1.7 b
    at 10 times earnings our market cap would be 5.47 billion.
    at 20 times earnings our market cap would be 10.94 billion.

    10x = 3.17 times more price
    20 times = 6.24 times more price
    current price per share = 7.80
    price per share at 10x= 24.72
    price per share at 20x= 49.44

    *that is with no fwd earnings growth built in.
    *alot of drug co's are at 30 times earnings.
    *plus wholesale cost of drug is $4 per day, and it may be
    more, but probably not less at 2 pills per day.

    Within a year of launch we will be selling probably 3 to 4 million prescriptions per user year. Maybe even up to 10 million.
    remember, doctors want safety first, and this drug offers a safe weight loss. Not everyone responds but the responders lost and average of 8.2 % and that is about the same as vvus's approved dosage in the mid range.

4.120.00(0.00%)Aug 29 4:00 PMEDT

Trending Tickers

Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.