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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • greatdayforinvestments greatdayforinvestments Nov 28, 2012 11:17 AM Flag

    Summer Street Note: Our price target of $11 is based on a 25x

    Summer Street
    Avanir Pharmaceuticals (AVNR)
    Gross Nuedexta Sales for FY4Q12 are $15.4MM
    November 28, 2012

    SUMMARY
    AVNR reported preliminary Q4 gross revenue for Nuedexta of $15.4MM, up 26%
    Q/Q. In the past, the gross to net has been in the teens. Going forward ANVR has
    predicted the gross to net will be between 20-25%. We had net sales of $11.4MM
    in our model. We expect the FYQ4 earnings call to take place in mid-December.
    AVNR has begun the phase 1 trial of AVP-786 (deuterated dextromethorphan),
    which could yield results in calendar 1Q13. We are not adjusting our model at this
    time and are comfortable with our estimate of Nuedexta revenue of $72.8MM in
    FY 2013, which includes $69.1MM in the US and $3.7MM in the EU.

    EVENT
    Total R&D and SGA spending was between $21.7MM-$22.2MM excluding non-cash
    items. There were more than 11,000 total prescriptions for the month of October
    2012. AVNR used $12MM cash in FY4Q12, and has $72.1MM as of September 30,
    2012. AVNR announced that it has initiated the first-in-human phase 1 clinical trial
    of AVP-786 (deuterated dextromethorphan). The trial is designed to #$%$ the
    single and multiple dose pharmacokinetics, safety and tolerability of AVP-786 in
    healthy subjects. Approximately 40 subjects will be enrolled in this randomized
    crossover study to compare multiple dose levels of AVP-786 (alone and in
    combination with quinidine) with dextromethorphan/quinidine. Results are
    expected in 1Q13.

    INTERPRETATION
    Gross Nuedexta sales of $15.4MM are $4MM higher than our estimate of net
    $11.4MM estimate and higher than the consensus of ~$12.7M. Nuedexta
    prescriptions continue to rise. We remain optimistic about our Nuedexta
    estimates and the prospects for AVNR.

    ACTION
    We are not making any changes to our models and we reiterate our BUY
    rating and price target of $11. Our price target of $11 is based on a 25x
    multiple of our FY15 EPS of $0.63/share, discounted at 20%.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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