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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • hotmeel1978 hotmeel1978 Jan 2, 2013 6:53 PM Flag

    Why we will be up BIG on friday jan 4, 2013

    Because:

    1) 56 million shorts, having 20 million jan 2013 options to hedge. Those options wil expire on thursday, Jan 3, 2013. From this moment on, 20 million shorted shares aren't hedged anymore. Combine with the second event below, they have to cover or be in REAL DANGER!

    2) There wil be no response from the EMA. Read: There wil be no oral hearing. (You know, the part of the EU approval proces that VVUS prescribed as "normal")

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • I don't know about options and don't care as they seem prone to manipulation, but an up day on Fri would be counterintuitive given the previous patterns. If they have to break the patterns, what better time than when everyone least expects it? Just tryin to think like a #$%$...

    • Well, Friday is upon us and I can't wait for ARNA to be up "BIG". I'm so excited that I have already figured out how to spend my profits. "BIG" has to be at least 10%. It appears that my ship has finally come in. cheers

    • HOTMEL IS A WACKO.....WACK JOB

    • Wish the whole board was more like this. Some disagreements but mostly with a thought process.

    • Note the lack of statement from ARNA regarding notification by CHMP of scheduled oral presentation therefore the approval clock has stopped.

    • Jan. 19th is the big options day.

      Speaking of the EU News

      I guess it is Arena that will be releasing that news. Lets suppose that they have a good idea who is holding most those call options. Lets also suppose that they believe it is the H.F.'s hedging their bets against the short positions they own, which by the way have also been dragging our price down since FDA approval last summer. Suppose they get offical notiication from CHMP at their meeting Jan 18th, which is probably about 5 hours ahead of our time. Do you think ARNA would wait till after the market closes for a PR and possibly letting most those options expire worthless. Nah, they wouldn't do that. So, who is in the drivers seat now shorties. Better hope they are not as ruthless as you guys. May have just painted yourselves into a corner. LOL. HaHaHaHaHaHaHaHa

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to centurycom
      • I am very Long on this stock and want good news as much as the next Long.

        But if you think that Jack really cares who owns/controls options or short shares you are sadly mistaken. The company has already received their money from the shares when they were issued. To think management will "time" news to fry shorts is just crazy pumping.

        Get it straight, they are only interested in making ARNA, as a corporation, a big success. A BY PRODUCT of this is that the stock will go up. They will not issue news to try and "make the manipulators pay". Why do they care in the short term, they are looking to the future.

        Let's keep it real. If you are looking/investing hoping for management news to make the stock rise then IMO you should sell or not get in at all. If you believe in the company and can wait at least 2+ years then by all means, jump right in, the water is fine.

        ARNA management does not care about the stock price today, they want it to be a successful company and have a large golden parachute in 5 years.

        BOL

        Sentiment: Hold

    • the perfect storm!

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Why do so many people constantly believe that ARNA options expire on Thursdays? They NEVER expire on a Thursday...they always technically expire on Saturdays, and on rare occasion they might be last traded on a Thursday, if Friday were a holiday. That means normally they trade last on the third Friday of the month, which is a little over 2 weeks from now, and with the weeklies, there will be some smaller amount of options expiring tomorrow, but certainly not a large volume, and just enough to keep a lid on the share price....so again, here in the USA, no ARNA options will be expiring today, but some weeklies will expire tomorrow...Friday 18 Jan will be the big options day.

      Rick

      Sentiment: Buy

    • stock_option_investor stock_option_investor Jan 3, 2013 10:40 AM Flag

      No, I think you are reading the option chart inaccurately. To be sure, the chart of options on Yahoo is very confusing, so please let me try to help. Look at the option chain & let's pull it apart into its components. Lets make it easy and look at the contract with huge volume, the $10 strike, with 62,000 options open (controlling 6.2M shares as each option contract controls 100 shares).

      ARNA130119C00010000

      ARNA is the underlying stock
      13 is the year 2013
      01 is the month
      19 is the day of expiration (some option chains will show 0104 as they expire on the 4th. This is really confusing because at the top of the chart, the label is misleading as it says "Expire at close Thursday January 3, 2013". It really should say "Expire in January, 2013, as specified in each individual ticker". Or they should improve their search filter to weed out the January 19 expiration contracts, and provide separate searches for January 3 expiration and January 19. Most options/stocks don't have this duality).

      -- continuing on
      C is for "Call" option (as opposed to a Put option which has a "P" in this position.
      The rest is the strike price $10.000 (shown as 00010000 to accommodate the standard which has to support all option strike prices, from $99,999.999 stocks on down to penny (or fraction) as well).

      So, they don't all expire January 3, but expire on January 19.
      I hope this helps, as it is easy to get confused by Yahoo's display and misleading title at the top of the options table.

      • 2 Replies to stock_option_investor
      • Finally we have a definition of 'BIG'. It's when a stock rises $.06 or .67%. I'm not sure that a 'small' increase would be...maybe $.02. Is there a word to cover when a stock rises $.20? So many questions, so few answers. cheers

      • Options that expire on this week are weeklies not the normal monthlies...MM use the weeklies to control sp and manipulate where they want sp to be to collect the premiums and keep shares....The huge calls are the monthlies set to expire on third friday of every month or for jan its the 18th......If we get chmp news after meeting on the 14-17 and published rec for belviq go on the 18th lets say before the bell or during then we could see those options exercised...Its a home run or a strike out...But no news from arna is good news, seven more business days of no news is good...If some kind of leak out of the eu we should see arna ps move higher going into chmp meeting...Remember MM writers are very powerful and crooked and will do everything in their power to have these options expire worthless..This will be a battle and nobody knows the outcome...One thing thats a possiblity is that HF that were using the options as a hedge do not want them to expire worthless so they begin a campaign say next week buying shares of arna or covering so sp increases way above their strikes...If a leak from chmp that an approval is in the bag then this could happen..Watch volume...DONT BUY OPTIONS unless you have inside info

    • Oh s--t, another pumper! fat, pepperoni, donco and all the rest. How big is it going to be by Friday? $10.25, $15.00, $25.00, or $100?????????????Still got my buy order in for $7!

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