Average volume with little price movement until the day before news. On this day, expect significant volume increase and a small spike in price as bulls move in for the run.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Buying pressure every morning till Thursday with pps approaching 10 and once volume dries up after couple hrs, MMs will walk us down back to opening pps which is closer to 9.5 than 10. Depending on buying pressure we might see this till wed. News on thurs or fri and if pps is close to 10 before news, then we might see 12. No news of approval recommendation and we see 8.90s.
one thing though, we will see higher volume at the buy at 9.5 everytime MMs walks us down mid day everyday for 3-4 days.
Hard to say. The forces of darkness read these boards and have the ability, temporarily, to make the pps do the opposite of what we expect. This in turn causes us to question our investment thesis and causes some to sell, which is what the dark side wants.
But there is no reason on the earth to sell this stock over the next few months. There are several major catalysts on the horizon, some closer that you think.
I think this week will be a fascinating one. But predicting exactly, or even vaguely, how it might go is really not possible. We all know there are two major factors at play: The possibility of EMA approval being announced on Friday (maybe as early as Thursday); and the wall that is applied by the 65000 $10 call options that expire at 4 pm on Friday. The OpEx will dominate if there's no EMA announcement, and in fact there's a good chance the MMs would be able to take the PPS below $9 to kill those Call options too. But if there IS an EMA announcement, the $10 wall will be broken and there could be a solid pop of a buck or two. "Events, my boy, events", as a politician, once said, will determine what happens.
Will there be speculative movements in the early part of the week? Sure! Speculators seem to love this stock. But my bet is the MMs will keep the price pinned as close as possible to the $10 wall for as long as possible, as the cost to them is staggering if those options do become seriously in the money. So I don't expect the PPS to be above $10 for very long, if at all, in the next couple of days, unless there is actual news (or a leak from CHMP, akin to what some people think drove the pop last Tuesday during the PRAC sub-committee meeting).
Good luck. Interesting times, and hopefully profitable ones to those who let their heads rule their hearts.
EMA approval worth a buck or 2. Say 11-12 with a sell off
Slow increase into launch maybe 13
Ist inkling of numbers will prob disappoint or not support current valuation.
Last meaningful short attack may take the stock to 7-8 after which 2nd qtr results will support $10+ and beyond.
May or may not happen but I think a good chance
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Don't you think that a lot of those jan 10 calls are held by MM that were and are short. They have bought these options to try and recover some of their losses from being short at 3.00
Or am I wrong?
The call writers would be selling shares at the bottom of a trading range, on a bull flag long term trend break out the week of potential very bullish news. Which is crazy.
They'll be buying every share to cover their calls and shorts and maintain their long positions.
Real shorts have no choice but to buy and use the 10 strike calls to cover their shorts and keep the price above 10 all week. That is known. We'll have to see how the 10.50, 11, and 12.50 calls play out and those call writers have to cover at some point. There is a potential it gets ugly this week for shorts and call writers.
If I was ARENA management I would use this opportunity to make my company much more valuable.
Everyone is turned into a buyer this week.
Ok I will..... We pop to above 11.00 next week on EU comments, then continue up trend to 13.5 before first earnings report, then we pop to 19.00 - 20.00 on earnings and overwhelming demand..... Buyout six months later at 42.00
Have a nice night, short fry