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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • tiger_josef tiger_josef Jan 15, 2013 5:46 AM Flag

    Yesterday Call Option Trading Volume may have the answer

    January Strike | Volume | Open Interest
    9 ARNA130119C00009000 | 2,289 | 19,808
    10 ARNA130119C00010000 | 6,559 | 65,632
    11 ARNA130119C00011000 | 3,438 | 25,925
    12.5 ARNA130119C00012500 | 1,998 | 23,676
    Total January Call Volume = 14,284

    February Strikes | |
    9 ARNA130216C00009000 | 254 | 1,317
    10 ARNA130216C00010000 | 1,542 | 4,110
    11 ARNA130216C00011000 | 2,387 | 2,404
    12 ARNA130216C00012000 | 538 | 2,010
    13 ARNA130216C00013000 | 1,395 | 510
    Total February Call Volume = 6,116

    April Strikes
    9 ARNA130420C00009000 | 427 | 6,103
    10 ARNA130420C00010000 | 555 | 9,973
    11 ARNA130420C00011000 | 1,393 | 7,555
    12 ARNA130420C00012000 | 2,121 | 6,443
    13 ARNA130420C00013000 | 246 | 6,124
    Total April Call Volume = 4,742

    With normal Distribution the January Call Volume would roughly be 7,500 Contracts; however, the traded volume was ~ 90% above the normal. IMO, this by itself is an indication that the EMA Opinion will be rendered in January and not in February.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • The jury is still out on Arena, no decision has been made or the answer is not yet certain. Each person should do their own DD and place their investment accordantly.

      Monumental research has been published on this MB over the last two weeks each day the discovery of new facts emerged and posted on the MB with the purpose of generosity and-- without the expectation of anything in return--- which should be lauded and applauded.

      Many Thanks To all.
      Dan.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Congratulations Tiger. Am very happy for you as I know you are looking good with your options ;). Well deserved.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Maybe, but it also could simply be a hedge by the large short sellers who have a very high risk in the chance that they do get the CHMP ruling early. The open interest is the key indicator and the Jan $10 Calls have had very high OI for more than a month now. So it could be an indicator, or simply a hedge.

    • What's interesting is the significant number of calls traded and open interest at the Jan 12.5 strike. We may very well have the Jan 10, 11, and 12.5 strikes all significantly in the money this week.

    • Either that or a lot of people like the research you did on Jan 18th being CHMP decision, so they're just going off that. :)

      • 1 Reply to thearizonacardinals
      • AC,

        Thanks for the compliments; however, I do not think I am that famous, lol....

        The 7000 Call Contracts above the normal represent 700,000 shares worth roughly $7M, I doubt my posts had anything to do with that and to be honest, I hope not cause I do not need that kinda of headache... I am simply posting observations, the decision making is up to each individual.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
ARNA
4.06Aug 3 4:00 PMEDT