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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • jdolby32 jdolby32 Jan 15, 2013 9:13 AM Flag

    How far away from 10 do they let it get?

    Battle royal going on this week - enormous amount of call options sitting at 10, with strong retail and institutional ownership not selling. Going to get very interesting as the game gets more and more dangerous every day that goes by for those that are caught short. Several catalysts are but a heart beat away for this company. News from the DEA would send Belviq into the marketplace almost immediately with our distribution partner Eisai having the product in hand and ready to distribute it.
    $65,000,000 milestone payment when that happens. EU approval is huge and a partner, like Eisai there, would make this even bigger. The fuse has been lit, now we are just guessing how long it is before the flame touches the dynamite.

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    • The battle rages on today with the 'manipulators' trying to shave half of yesterdays gain out today. Tomorrow they will attempt to shave the other half down, so that by Friday they can pull it under 10 to make those 10's expire worthless. No news means they can do as they like and the buying volume, from old and new investors, is not enough to off set the coordinated selling by these creeps. They know they have a window to operate in here with the date set for any news in a couple of days. The head fake up this morning was to suck some new buyers in and then drop it back down with their short from 11+. Nothing has changed with ARNA, only the games being played. Even that's predictable, and these guys are NOT going to lose major dollars. They have paid moles everywhere, so their ears are on the pavement constantly for any hint of news. Trust me, they are privy to anything way before we are, whether getting legally or illegally.

    • What can "they" do?
      Yahoo has not one, but two articles today discussing how big pharma is on a bio-tech shopping spree. Bloomberg puts ARNA square in their targets.
      The game is over soon and longs are going to take the gold.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to en_credible
      • Saw those articles and the strategy shift for R&D by big pharma is to simply let these smaller bio's execute into Phase I and II to prove their product is viable, then they move in to partner with an option to buy, or simply buy them out. No need to spend millions doing your own internal R&D and then having it be rejected or fail. The premium they pay for the buyout is worth every penny when it comes with a proven chance for success. ARNA has already acquired the 'golden
        ring' of approval with the FDA, so there is virtually no risk whatsoever for big pharma. However, ARNA has been very smart in partnering and receiving big chunks of money - so unlike some of their cousins (small bios) who are strapped for cash and funding, ARNA is cash rich with no debt and a pipeline of products to develop. The quandary for big pharma is how much to offer out of the gate, and is a deal even possible with their other partners in place? Who plays their cards first and what is the initial ante to start the bidding? Seems to me that Jack is holding some wild cards which will be very valuable in this poker game. JMO

 
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