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Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Message Board

  • jdolby32 jdolby32 Jan 15, 2013 4:57 PM Flag

    Difference between a bio with FDA and one without

    Small bios that have a wonderful product yet are not known except to the small retail investors, i.e., penny traders and above, essentially hover on the edge constantly with whether they have enough funding or their product is going to make it through early trials. Next comes the monumental task of getting it prepared and submitted to the FDA. HF's and market makers prey on this group of small investors as they are the only ones who typically take a chance on bios of this size. Big institutional groups rarely venture into this game early and will wait for more positive indications that the company is shedding some of the risk and their product(s) have a potential to get through Phase III and to FDA. When these companies approach a major make or break event like the FDA, everything is at risk - are we going to be accepted or rejected. Investors sit on the edge of their seats, wishing, hoping, and praying that they will become wealthy over night for their patience. HF's and MM's know this and can play on their emotions with the manipulation of a quick down move - let alone a sudden flash crash which rips out all their stops and sends the stock plummeting downwards. And, sends these small investors quivering in the corner wondering what just hit them. HF's/MM's cover and buy, they take it back up and make boku bucks. Small guys are just road kill after that 18-wheeler smoked them.

    ARNA on the other hand has weathered all this 'bee-s' and moved past this one HUGE event. The people that got in early have seen their money do X-factors on the way up. As well, now with the risk removed, institutional groups have poured into this stock and sit with a substantial amount of the float. So with the amount of shares owned by the 'super' retail longs and these new professional groups, it is going to be very difficult to create a 'bear raid' when the real players are locked and loaded for the actual launch of this product in the America's and beyond. It's hard for me to imagine these folks being shaken out of their shares with the typical rumor mill, innuendo, and paid basher's endless misinformation barrage. If anything, I think there would be continuous buying from these longs because they know the end-game and have enormous confidence in the management to deliver.

    Bear-Raid . . . not likely. I think the trapped funds and retail shorts know this - which creates an even bigger problem for them. Instead of everyone frantically selling with an 'artificial' down move, I think there would be massive buying at lower levels knowing what we know lies ahead for this company.

    What lies just ahead . . . DEA sign-off, Belviq launch, EU approval, new partnerships, new milestone payments = massive revenue. JMO

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